Weather forecasters about summer in Tatarstan: 'Temperature will be higher than normal'
Kazan Federal University meteorologists predict moderate heat and explain why there are fewer mosquitoes this year
Weather forecasters promise a moderately hot summer for Tatarstan, while excluding the possibility of a repeat of the 2010 heat wave. Kazan Federal University meteorologists believe that in general the temperature and the amount of precipitation will be within the normal range, sometimes with a slight exceedance. The trend was set back in May, when the air temperature in Kazan broke the historical maximum, and summer came a month earlier. Also, scientists hurried to reassure farmers and gardeners — they should not fear June frosts — the soil is sufficiently warmed. But the employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Tatarstan will have to be ready — in some areas of the republic, the fire hazard can reach Class 5. Read the details about the summer weather in the material of Realnoe Vremya.
Human is to blame for climate change
The climate change debate is coming to the fore. The presidents of Russia and the United States will discuss this problem, among others, at a meeting in Geneva. According to scientists, since 1900, the global temperature has risen by 1,2 degrees Celsius. This is very much and very alarming for specialists, said Yury Perevedentsev, the head of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology at the Kazan Federal University, at a briefing in Kazan.
The main reason for the increase in air temperature is the effect of anthropogenic factors or, in simple terms, human activity. The rapid growth of industry has also increased the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For the last 800 thousand years and before the beginning of the industrial era, its level was no higher than 280 parts per million. Five years ago, it broke the record, passing 403 parts per million, and as of 2021 — already 420 parts per million. Therefore, it is not surprising that the temperature in recent years has been rushing only up.
Since 2015 and every year since, new temperature records have been recorded. Last May has become such, Perevedentsev explained. Early summer has already begun in the republic since May 9. The reason is extreme temperatures, which were recorded for the first time in 130 years.
For 10 years, the rate of temperature increase on Earth, he said, has been 0,2 degrees, respectively, for 100 years — this is plus 2 degrees. In Russia, the ten-year indicator is almost half a degree. According to the scientist, if the trend continues, by the end of the century, the country will become hotter by 5 degrees. Even higher — almost three to four times — is the temperature in the Arctic, which has recently attracted attention around the world.
African mosquitoes and other climate “surprises”
Climatologists are also concerned about the lack of precipitation in Russia, as well as their quality. Now in the country — it is only 25 mm with the previous summer norm of 60 mm. The lack of precipitation is recorded not only in the European territory, but also in Western Siberia. If we talk about Tatarstan, here, fortunately, meteorologists note an excess of the norm, but not so significant.
What one should be afraid of is natural phenomena that cause damage, such as the recent squally wind in Arsk and hail in the Sarmanovsky district. By the way, cumulus clouds are not only beautiful, but also dangerous — they bring with them rainfall and hail. There are more tornadoes and hurricanes, Perevedentsev complains, these are the so-called mesoscale climate systems. Moreover, the consequences of climate change are not only heat or destructive natural elements, but also new animals and insects. Today in Russia, one can already meet African mosquitoes, said the head of the Department of Meteorology.
The lack of rain in early summer, when there is a growing season, affects the harvest. The vegetative period of plants increases because summer comes earlier, and spring for this reason is reduced, for example, as it has been this year. Early summer led to changes in the phenological component — so in May, the simultaneous rapid flowering of lilac, bird cherry, mountain ash began, despite that these shrubs usually bloom with a difference of at least two weeks. In early June, in the forests in several districts of the republic, mushrooms appeared, characteristic of mid-July. Besides, the poplar fluff season began much earlier. The hot May has created ideal conditions for flowering and ovaries of fruit and berry plants and trees.
But the absence of a large amount of rain saved the residents of Tatarstan from annoying mosquitoes — they are noticeably less this year, said Timur Aukhadeev, Associate Professor of the Department of Meteorology at the Kazan Federal University. He explained this by that for their reproduction, small reservoirs are needed — puddles, lakes, but they are not there, because there is no abundant precipitation, and in large reservoirs mosquitoes do not reproduce — their larvae are eaten by fish and frogs.
Within normal range, but higher than normal
There will be no extreme heat, as in the summer of 2010, says Yury Perevedentsev. Then the air temperature, due to long anticyclone on the territory of the republic, rose to +40 degrees and above. Now cyclical nature is typical: if the day before it was hot, +27 degrees and high, about 70%, humidity — the eastern anticyclone had an impact. But today, on Thursday night, a cold atmospheric front will come and the air temperature will drop slightly, but it will be typical for June. Then heat will come again.
In general, the summer weather, according to KFU scientists, in Tatarstan will be within the normal range — this applies to both the amount of precipitation and temperature, and sometimes with excess, but not lower:
“The fact that the temperature will be higher than normal — there is no doubt, we had May with extreme temperatures. As for precipitation — God grant that the norm has been reached. It is still below normal and not very visible on the map, so that we have precipitation coming, and they are very necessary for the beginning of the growing season. The average daily temperature in June should be at the level of 18-19 degrees, and by the end of the month +20, but it is higher, by 4-5 degrees. And there is little precipitation, it is forecasted only for one day. The month of June will not show us below the norm.”
In July, according to forecasts, the average daily temperature is expected to be within 20 degrees Celsius, and precipitation will be about 70 mm, mainly heavy rain. August also does not promise anomalies: the temperature will be about 17,5 degrees Celsius and about 50 mm of precipitation.
Warm and dry weather threatens to preserve the fire-dangerous period in Tatarstan. Aukhadeev warned that in some areas we can expect even the 5th class of danger — this is the highest class of fire, creating an emergency situation due to the slightest carelessness with fire in the forest.
Frosts are not expected, and the forecast for the harvest is 40 quintals per hectare
During the spring sowing campaign, farmers were afraid that the seedlings would not be good, and the yield would be low, but today they note that there have been no serious losses, Timur Aukhadeev said. Competent agrotechnical measures, including harrowing, which helps to preserve moisture in the soil, will give the opportunity to grow a good crop. Meanwhile, as Realnoe Vremya wrote, the farmers themselves did not give the most encouraging forecasts. According to them, an abnormally hot May and the lack of rain can reduce the harvest by 10-15%.
“According to the forecasts of scientists of the Institute of Ecology and Nature Management, the current state of the soil and crops, taking into account the partial re-sowing of winter crops, gives the opportunity to make a prognostic value, which is actually 40 quintals per hectare," said Timur Aukhadeev, Associate Professor of the Department of Meteorology at thre KFU.
According to Yury Perevedentsev, this is “a very good indicator for our territory”. This year, enough snow fell in Tatarstan to saturate the soil with meltwater, which was preserved in the ground during the sowing and vegetative period — this has been, according to him, the salvation for the future crop.
The year of losses for the farmers of Tatarstan was 2010, the heat and drought led to that only 700,000 tonnes of grain were collected from the fields of the republic against the usual 5-6 million tonnes of grain. That time, more than 21,000 farms were affected, and crops of various crops were lost on an area of more than 13 million hectares. As a result, the agro-industrial complex of the republic suffered damage of almost 42 billion rubles.
A similar situation with the weather is developing in neighbouring Bashkiria. Dry weather can cause damage to farmers in this region.
Gardeners and agricultural producers of Tatarstan should no longer be afraid of frosts, they will definitely not be — the meteorologists of the KFU assured. According to Yury Perevedentsev, the soil has warmed up enough, and the air temperature is quite high. Moreover, frost on the soil is a rare phenomenon for June. They were last recorded on the territory of Tatarstan on June 7, 1979 and June 5, 1981.