“A sequel is quite possible”: key points on the US-Iran conflict

“Israel and the United States have begun an operation to eliminate the existential threat posed by the regime in Iran

Around 9:00 AM Moscow time, Israel launched a missile strike on Iran. According to media reports, explosions were heard in five cities of the republic, including Tehran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian were evacuated to a safe location. According to Reuters, they were among the targets of the strikes.

Donald Trump's video address announcing the start of the military operation in Iran was published around 10:00 AM Moscow time on his Truth Social page. According to him, it is aimed at the republic's nuclear and missile programs.

— The goal of the United States, and especially my administration, was to prevent this terrorist regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. I say again: they will never have nuclear weapons, — he said in the video address published on his Truth Social page. — They rejected any possibility of abandoning their nuclear ambitions, our patience has run out. They attempted to revive their nuclear program and continue developing long-range missiles, which can now threaten our good friends and allies.

Donald Trump stated that the US intends to “destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.”

— Our goal is to protect the American people by eliminating immediate threats from the Iranian regime, as well as preventing a radical dictatorial regime from threatening the United States and core national security interests, — he said in the video address.

The US President also demanded that the Iranian military, police, and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps lay down their arms:

— To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the armed forces, and all the police, I declare that you must lay down your arms and receive full immunity, or, as an alternative, certain death awaits you.

He called on Iranians to take shelter and not leave their homes during the hot phase of the military operation, because “bombs will be falling everywhere”: “When we are finished, take power into your own hands — it will belong to you, it will be yours. This may be your only chance in generations.”

Trump stated that no American president has done what he has undertaken: “Let's see how you respond, the US has come with overwhelming and devastating force, it is time to take control of your destiny. This is the time to act, do not miss it.”

Later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel and the US had begun an operation to eliminate the threat posed by the Iranian regime: “Israel and the United States have begun an operation to eliminate the existential threat posed by the regime in Iran. This bloodthirsty terrorist regime must not be armed with nuclear weapons that would allow it to threaten all of humanity.”

According to him, the military operation by Israel and the US against Iran is intended to create conditions for a change of power in the Islamic Republic.

It is known that the US has named the military operation against Iran “Epic Fury," and Israel has named it “Roaring Lion.”

Meanwhile, member of the lower house of the US legislative body, Thomas Massie (Republican from Kentucky), stated that the US strikes on Iran were not approved by the US Congress: “Military action, unauthorized by Congress.”

Recall that under US law, only Congress has the authority to declare war.

“The aggression of the Zionist regime and the us is considered absolutely unacceptable and a clear crime”

In response, Iran announced strikes on Israel, as well as on the UAE, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, where US military bases are presumably located. “Any base in the region that helps Israel will become our target," said a representative of the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff.

Official representative of the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to condemn the aggression of the US and Israel.

— The aggression of the Zionist regime and the US is considered absolutely unacceptable and a clear crime. We expect other countries not to remain indifferent and to condemn this act. The UN Security Council must also immediately convene an emergency meeting and condemn this act.

Several countries close their airspace

Iran and Israel closed their airspace shortly after the strikes began. According to Rosaviatsiya, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait also prohibited flights, while the UAE introduced temporary restrictions. To ensure flight safety, aviation authorities in Oman closed the airport of the country's capital, Muscat.

— Rosaviatsiya issued its own recommendations (NOTAM) for Russian air transport operators. When conducting flights to Gulf countries, they are advised to choose alternate routes through the airspace of third countries, adhering to all safety measures and actively monitoring recommendations from foreign state aviation authorities, — the agency stated, adding that flights to Israel and Iran are suspended until further notice.

As for the NOTAM, it will be in effect at least until 02:59 AM Moscow time on March 2.

It is also known that Flydubai aircraft flying to Dubai from Kazan and Moscow were forced to land in Baku due to restrictions in the regional airspace.

According to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), approximately 50,000 Russian tourists are in the UAE. In Qatar, there are about 1,000 Russians; in Oman, about 700; and in Bahrain, about 300.

“All negotiations with Iran were a cover operation”

Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated that negotiations with Iran were merely a cover for the US.

— The peacemaker has shown his face once again. All negotiations with Iran were a cover operation. No one doubted that. No one particularly wanted to come to any agreement, — he wrote on his Telegram channel.

According to Medvedev, the question now is who will show more patience, “to wait for the inglorious end of their enemy.” “The US is only about 249 years old. The Persian Empire was founded over 2500 years ago. Let's see in about 100 years...”

“Washington and Tel Aviv have once again embarked on a dangerous adventure, rapidly bringing the region closer to a humanitarian, economic, and possibly radiological catastrophe”

At midday, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement “in connection with the armed aggression of the US and Israel against Iran”:

— The scale and nature of the military-political and propaganda preparations preceding this reckless step, including the buildup of a large US military force in the region, leave no doubt that this is a pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state, in violation of the fundamental principles and norms of international law. Condemnation is also due to the fact that the attacks are again carried out under the cover of a renewed negotiation process, allegedly aimed at ensuring long-term normalization of the situation around the Islamic Republic, and contrary to signals conveyed to the Russian side about the Israelis' lack of interest in military confrontation with the Iranians.

The diplomatic ministry called on the international community, including the leadership of the UN and the IAEA, “to immediately provide an objective and uncompromising assessment of irresponsible actions aimed at destroying peace, stability, and security in the Middle East”:

— Washington and Tel Aviv have once again embarked on a dangerous adventure, rapidly bringing the region closer to a humanitarian, economic, and possibly radiological catastrophe. The intentions of the aggressors are clear and quite openly declared — to destroy the constitutional order and eliminate the leadership of a state they dislike, which has refused to submit to forceful diktat and hegemonism. Responsibility for the negative consequences of the man-made crisis, including an unpredictable chain reaction and the escalation of the spiral of violence, lies entirely with them. The severe consequences of these ill-considered steps for the global non-proliferation regime, of which the NPT is the cornerstone, are openly ignored. Moreover, the US-Israeli tandem hides behind the supposed concern that the Iranians might acquire nuclear weapons. Bombing nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards is unacceptable. In reality, Washington and Tel Aviv have motives that have nothing to do with the non-proliferation regime. They cannot fail to understand that by plunging the Middle East into the abyss of uncontrolled escalation, they are effectively encouraging countries worldwide, especially in the region, to acquire ever more serious means to counter emerging threats.

The Foreign Ministry expressed particular alarm at “the serial nature of the destabilizing strikes carried out by the US Administration in recent months against the international legal foundations of the world order, which include non-interference in internal affairs, refraining from the threat or use of force, and the peaceful resolution of international disputes.”

— We demand an immediate return to the path of political and diplomatic settlement. Russia, as before, is ready to assist in finding peaceful solutions based on international law, mutual respect, and a balance of interests, — the ministry stated.

“The strait of Hormuz will be closed, and so on”

Political scientist and orientalist Karine Gevorgyan, in an interview with a Realnoe Vremya correspondent, predicted a further expansion of the conflict across the entire Middle East.

— Yesterday, we saw a war break out between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan declared war on Afghanistan. And this is the first episode, or the 'preliminary game'. The US has concentrated a huge armada and armed forces. Weapons have been constantly delivered to Israel from the US, indicating that Trump was eventually going to be pressured and dragged in as a 'private military company' to destabilize the entire Middle East. Of course, he will receive blows. The Strait of Hormuz will be closed, and so on, — she stated.

According to her, Iran did not activate its air defense in the first stage because civilian aircraft were in the sky, making the strikes on Tehran effective: “Now the skies over Iran and Iraq are closed. Iran has tested its air defense system and is striking a very wide area: this includes Oman, Jordan, Abu Dhabi, and it is testing the endurance of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Gulf of Oman. Iran is going in with a very wide dragnet.”

As Karine Gevorgyan stated, Iran has prepared everything necessary to close the Strait of Hormuz.

— When they will close it is the big question. With missiles flying, and the Iranian side acting as pilots, it is logical to assume that under these conditions the Strait of Hormuz will be closed, — she concluded.

“The United States will try to resolve everything within about a week, but after that, it depends”

Nikita Smagin*, author of the book “Iran for Everyone," commented to Realnoe Vremya on the possibility of a full-scale war in the Middle East:

— The answer depends heavily on what we define as a big war. The scale of military action is already quite serious. At the same time, Iran is already striking US military bases in the region, located in neighboring countries. So overall, there is indeed a significant chance that this will be much more serious than what happened during the 12-day war. Again, how much more serious is another question, because it depends on many factors. Not to mention that the main anxiety in what's happening is probably that it will simply drag on. And it will become some kind of very prolonged confrontation. That is also a quite possible scenario.

He is not sure that the US is specifically aiming for regime change:

— Not because they don't want it, but because it is a very difficult task, specifically a military one. The military cannot set such a task for themselves, because it depends not only on them. But nevertheless, we already see that the United States and Israel are trying to destroy representatives of the military-political leadership, or rather even the political leadership. And this, of course, tells us that they clearly intend to follow the path of destabilizing the situation. But regime change itself depends very much on how Iranian society reacts to everything happening. Will they protest, will they attack the security forces themselves, will they themselves try to seize power. And, most importantly, can they do it in an organized way? These are indeed big questions. So I think regime change is a very complex scenario that depends on far more than just the United States and Israel. And therefore, no one can guarantee it yet.

Speaking about the forecast, Nikita Smagin* stated that the US would likely strike for about a week.

*Note: Nikita Smagin is recognized as a foreign agent in Russia.

— After that, it will depend greatly on how many parties become involved in this confrontation, how massive and large-scale it all becomes, and how large-scale Iran's responses are. And then it is quite possible that there will be a sequel. That is, it depends, I think, on many factors, although it's clear that Trump is probably not interested in a very long conflict. So I would expect that the United States will try to resolve everything within about a week, but after that, it depends, because it also depends on many circumstances, — he concluded.