‘The North Atlantic cyclone brought a simply terrible thaw’: rain and drizzle return to Tatarstan

“In the 70s, 80s, 90s and the 2000s, such January months were observed at least once or twice”

After the negative temperatures observed in Tatarstan last week, the thermometer readings rose above zero again during the day. The consequences were not long in coming: for example, the Directorate of Parks and Squares of Kazan has already announced the closure of the skating rink in the Black Lake Park until the onset of stable cold weather. Due to the increase in temperature and weather conditions that can negatively affect the condition of the ice, skating is becoming unsafe.

The coming week will be abnormally warm for residents of the republic, Felix Gogol, head of the Weather Centre of the Republic of Tatarstan, told Realnoe Vremya. Daytime temperatures will be slightly positive, around +1, +2 degrees, and nighttime temperatures will be slightly negative, or around zero. This is about 10 degrees above average.

“Ordinary people think that we have never had such Januarys. But in fact, in the seventies, and in the eighties, and in the nineties, and in the 2000s, at least once or twice [were observed] Januarys with a similar average monthly temperature background, even with a slightly higher one,” the expert said.

“It only seems that there was little snow”

According to Gogol, a positive temperature anomaly was observed in January and earlier. Thus, the first ten days of the month were warmer than the norm by an average of 6-7 degrees. Let us recall that in Kazan, during this period, as many as two temperature records were updated. On 3 January, the maximum air temperature was +3.2 degrees against the +2.7 degrees recorded in 1920. On 8 January, it was 2.6 degrees, exceeding the record of 2.2 degrees set in 1990. The second ten-day period of the month was warmer than normal by 4-6 degrees. Later, frosts finally came to the republic: the night of 23 January was the coldest in the past period of the calendar winter.

“Last week, the weather in our region was determined by an anticyclone, so we had very high pressure and the temperature background came to more or less climatic. But it has already practically gone to the southeast. It was replaced by a North Atlantic cyclone, which brought a simply terrible thaw to the European part of Russia. In Moscow, +6 degrees will be this week, solid temperature records,” explained climatologist Yuri Perevedentsev

As for precipitation, there has been quite a lot of it so far, Felix Gogol emphasised. In the first ten days of January, 33 mm of precipitation was recorded, in the second ten days — nine. Average long-term values in different areas vary from 30 to 46 mm. Accordingly, it can already be said that the norm in January will be achieved, and perhaps even exceeded. “It only seems that there was little snow, because it melted and compacted," said the head of the Weather Centre.

“A motley picture is emerging in terms of the height of the snow cover”

This winter, concerns have been voiced more than once about how warm weather will affect winter crops. In particular, the cold snap last week threatened the formation of a snow crust. Fortunately, the negative forecast did not come true. Dangerous agrometeorological phenomena have not been recorded in Tatarstan and are not expected in the coming decades, assured Felix Gogol.

“The only thing I can say is that the winter crops, which are currently under snow cover, are still negatively affected by the high temperature background in the republic. Sugar is spent on respiration at an increased rate. This is not very good, but not critical at the moment,” he said.

It should be reminded that a week ago, the Weather Centre of Russia also warned about this problem. It predicted a deterioration in the conditions for wintering winter crops in the European part of the country in the near future due to abnormally warm weather, which leads to unproductive consumption of sugars on respiration in winter crops.

Normally, the depth of snow cover in the regions of Tatarstan is from 15 to 35 cm. Is there enough snow for winter crops this winter? “The republic has a rather mixed picture in terms of the height of snow cover,” says Felix Gogol. According to snow survey data from January 20, in the west of Tatarstan the snow cover is only 2 cm deep, in the southwest it is 12-14 cm, and in the east, southeast and does not reach 44-45 cm.

“With the change in weather, agricultural measures should also change”

Chairman of the Association of Farmers and Households of Tatarstan Kamiyar Baytemirov is also concerned about grain diseases.

“The impact of snow mould, the possibility of other diseases in winter crops, of course, increases due to warm weather and sugar consumption. Sugar protects the plant from freezing of intercellular connections. If there is little of it and frost sets in, then the intercellular connections are broken and the plant dies,” he added.

In addition, in his opinion, high temperatures for winter can lead to the intensive development of pests. This is already dangerous for spring crops, which will be sown in the spring and summer. So farmers will have to do some meticulous work, Baytemirov believes.

“As the weather changes, agricultural measures should also change. Therefore, scientists probably now need to offer certain options that agricultural producers of all types of ownership could use to preserve winter crops and carry out spring field work,” added the chairman of the Association of Farmers and Households.