Why are Trump's 25% duties on Iran's partner countries good for Russia?

Protests in Iran and their consequences

On Tuesday, January 13, US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of 25% duties on countries cooperating with Iran. Two days later, NBC News reported that the American leader wants the military to deliver a «decisive blow» to the Iranian regime, but he has not yet received such guarantees from his advisers.

After Trump's statements, oil prices fell sharply; by 8:16 Moscow time, March Brent futures on the ICE Futures exchange fell by $2.15 (3.23%), to $64.37 per barrel.

According to the order of January 13, countries doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will be required to pay a 25% duty on any trade operations with the United States. Trump emphasized that this order is final and not subject to revision.

Iran itself has been under sanctions for more than 45 years: the first restrictive measures were introduced by the United States in 1979 after the Islamic Revolution.

Screenshot from the Truth social network

The new restrictive measures are associated with the wave of protests that swept Iran. The start was a strike by entrepreneurs in Tehran on December 28, caused by a sharp devaluation of the national currency and a rapid rise in prices. By the end of the year, inflation reached 42.5% per annum, and the Iranian rial had depreciated by about half against the dollar.

Initially, protest sentiments manifested themselves in the main bazaar, where shop owners and students from local universities joined the actions. Later, the unrest spread to all provinces of the country. As of January 12, at least 544 people have died in the protests, including 48 security forces. More than 10,500 people have been arrested.

It will be easier for Russia to export grain, chemicals and metals to the country

Since April 2025, Russia and Iran have been strategic partners. The key joint project remains the development of the North-South international transport corridor, which should provide direct transport links between Russia and the ports of the Indian Ocean through the territory of Iran. In 2023, the countries signed agreements on the construction of the Resht-Astara railway line. This section is to integrate the railway networks of three countries — Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran — into a single transport system.

«This works to our advantage. If indirect duties on the trading price are introduced, it will be beneficial for us. Trade flows go to Turkey, the Emirates, China. We have dozens of trading partners, including Iran. We already have all sorts of duties on us <...> Trump promises a lot: either a 500% duty or something else. But so far, none of this has worked,» Alexander Sharov, General Director of RusIranExpo Group, told Real Time.

The interlocutor noted that there will finally be an opportunity to supply wheat to Iran, whereas at present it is exported to this country by the USA, Great Britain, Australia and Canada, but not by Russia (since 2025, it has been sent from Tatarstan, and Iran accounts for 75% of Russian grain exports to Islamic countries — editor's note). According to the expert, this will force the relevant states to lift duties — for both the UK and Canada, and the USA itself.

It is also planned to establish direct supplies of aluminium: previously, the metal went through Great Britain, which is why duties were applied to it as a British product. In addition, the interlocutor pointed out that there are many promising positions in the chemical industry, for example, potassium chloride. He drew attention to the fact that a number of goods are purchased from other countries, although they could potentially be purchased from Russia.

China, India and Turkey may be the most vulnerable to Trump's duties

Evgeny Satanovsky, president of the Institute of the Middle East and an economist, disagrees with Sharov. He is sceptical about the idea that other countries will abandon Iran and Russia will take their place.

«The belief that we will be lucky to get something for free is a fairy tale by the Brothers Grimm. Our old Russian desire to get something at someone else's expense without doing anything has not disappeared,» Satanovsky said.

China, India and Turkey may be the most vulnerable to Trump's US duties. But the PRC usually does not change its position under the pressure of duties. Instead of a direct reaction, Beijing usually looks for alternative ways: uses detour routes, introduces new payment mechanisms and takes non-standard logistics solutions.

«Duties are bad, and America is an aggressor. But such a huge number of sanctions have been imposed against us that no one has ever seen. We have nothing to be afraid of anymore. In conditions of military action, when the goal is to destroy Russia as a state, any duties do not matter. What difference does it make what Trump or the next US president comes up with?» the expert said.

What has Tatarstan built with its friendship with Iran?

Tatarstan has already developed warm relations with Iran. The interaction is supported by mutual visits: the Rais of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, last visited the country in 2022, and the mayor of Kazan, Ilsur Metshin, in April 2025. At the same time, agreements were signed on the establishment of friendly relations between Kazan, Tehran and Isfahan.

In the same year, direct flights between the capitals of the two republics were resumed. They are operated on Mondays and Wednesdays. The flight time between the two cities is about three hours.

In addition, Rosmorrechflot is considering the Sviyazhsk multimodal logistics complex as a container hub for exports from the Volga region. Its inclusion in the sea container route to Iran could revive the activity of the complex. However, the priority is still the seaports of Makhachkala and Astrakhan, and regional centres are considered to cover cargo from the Volga region and Central Russia.

Even earlier, in November 2024, a new building of the Iranian Consulate General in Kazan was opened. At that time, Shamil Ageev, chairman of the Board of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) of Tatarstan, praised «the Iranian experience in circumventing sanctions». It was about mechanical engineering, technology, aircraft and helicopter topics.

However, it is very difficult to predict how the new duties will affect Tatarstan. Shamil Ageev, chairman of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Republic of Tatarstan, warns against hasty assessments: in his opinion, open discussions on this topic may provoke a backlash — in particular, affect the volume of exports and imports. He points out the risk that the US may impose restrictions in this area if the discussion is conducted publicly.