Cold December after hot summer: what Kazan citizens should expect from this winter
Winter in Kazan will be within the average
Relatively warm October arrived after cold September in Kazan. Tatarstan’s Hydrometereology Centre promised that the air would start to get warm “quite a lot by autumn standards” and even “Indian summer would start.” But summer anyway ended, and frosty winter is on the horizon. Professor of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Environment of the Institute of Environmental Sciences of Kazan Federal University Yury Perevedentsev told Realnoe Vremya what Kazan citizens should expect from the cold months.
“The Russian Hydrometeorology Centre made a forecast for the whole heating season. And its winter period was within the average for our territory. They forecast only December below the average, that’s to say, it will be cold here, while the rest, as people say, is according to climatic standards, climatic average,” said Perevedentsev. He added that if the temperature is forecasted to be within the climatic average, precipitation won’t raise it. This is likely true because all these long-term forecasts are 60-70% correct, they anyway mainly go by the climate, the professor claims.
Perevedentsev said what temperature Kazan citizens can expect according to long-term indicators registered by Kazan University weather station. The professor says that in October Kazan citizens can be ready for a temperature of +4,2 degrees, -2,7 degrees in November, -8,3 degrees in December. -12,2 degrees should be expected in January, -10,6 in February. While in March, it will get warmer, -4,2 degrees. At the same time, he specified that the temperature in the city centre is always a bit higher.
Meanwhile, Fobos centre reported that more precipitation is expected in winter in Russia than usual, almost a quarter above the average in Moscow and almost twice higher than long-term indicators in the lower reaches of the Volga, near Kolyma and south Siberia. When asked if Kazan citizens should expect rains in October and November and heavy snow in winter, Perevedentsev claimed that at the moment these forecasts can be based only on climatic measurements and average long-term indicators:
“The average precipitation level in October can be 47mm, 44 mm in November, 38mm in December, 28mm in February, 27mm in March. These are cold months, the temperature and precipitation are distributed this way, according to long-term climatic data. Since the Hydrometeorology Centre forecasts everything within the average in our region, except for December, December will get colder, we can stick to such expectations, there can be such temperatures. I stress that it is the average monthly temperatures.”
Professor Perevedentsev paid attention to the fact that the upcoming winter will have both waves of heat and waves of cold. According to him, climatic standards suggest that the stable snow coat appears during the first 20 days of November, approximately on 21 November. As he stressed, the pre-winter period ends then, and winter starts.
“The circulation of the air is the question, which is the hardest thing to forecast. If our air circulation is western, that’s to say, North Atlantic influences us, indeed, we will have warm and snowy weather, moreover, if southern cyclones come here. But our September was mainly under the influence of the Arctic, cold air, this is why it was cold here,” Perevedentsev explained.
One will have to put warmer clothes on in December
As Yury Perevedentsev said, Russia’s Hydrometeorology Centre indeed forecasts cold December. The weathermen say that during the first month of the calendar winter, the temperature is expected to be below the average in most parts of the Volga Federal District, in the south of the Ural Federal District and southwest and central regions of the Siberian Federal District. The Hydrometeorology Centre doesn’t forecast any anomalous weather in the Volga area and its regions during the upcoming cold period.
The possible forecast for the temperature of the Hydrometeorology Centre in Tatarstan for the 2021/2022 heating season proves this. December is indicated as the only month when the average monthly temperature will be below the average, moreover, it is -9,6 degrees.
According to the Hydrometeorology Centre in Tatarstan, the temperature in the republic from October to March inclusively, except for December, as it is indicated above, will be around the average. For October, it will be +3,1°С. From November, the temperatures will start falling below zero. In November, it is -3,7 degrees, -13,6 degrees in January, -12,3 degrees in February, -5,7 degrees in March.
The temperature forecasts for the heating season have fluctuated around 58-81% in the last 10 years, the Hydrometeorology Centre in Tatarstan clarified.
How cold weather hit Tatarstan last winter
Last winter, Tatarstan residents had to be cold. People of the republic shared photos of thermometers reading -40 degrees on social media, while weathermen warned of icy roads and a gale-force wind, snowstorms and fog from time to time. However, according to the forecast in November 2020 and February-March 2021, the temperature was expected above the average.
The cold weather impeded public transport from operating. In January, some trams and trolleybuses were late because they got frozen, and the wires were out. On some days, the temperature reached -38,7 degrees in the far southeast part of the republic.
People suffered from the cold weather too. Firstly, from frostbite. It was reported in January that a year-old baby was seriously frostbitten in the republic. Another minor with a mild case was in hospital in Alexeyevsk, doctors diagnosed him with a slightly frostbitten hand. Secondly, the freezing cold weather influenced utility bills — last winter, Tatarstan residents had to pay more for heating in flats.
The cold weather stood till the end of the winter. On 22 February night in Tatarstan, the temperature fell to 25-30 degrees. In lower districts, primarily in the south and east of the republic, it reached up to -36°С.