Turkey will hurt Crimea’s economy after the launch of charter flights
Experts are waiting for a price reduction and, consequently, a growth of prices for tickets to Turkey in the coming few weeks
Sales of tours to Turkey renewed only a couple of days ago, but tour operators already managed to prepare programmes. Demand, which is only virtual for a while, exceeds supply, and Crimean hotels complain about an outflow of clients and cancellation of bookings. To tell the truth, there is no charter flight yet, prices for a holiday in Turkey is not as cheap as it was expected. However, in the coming few weeks, package tours will seriously cheapen as soon as an alternative to regular flights appears. In this case, even the threat of terrorist attacks won't frighten the Russian tourists.
Turkey hurts Crimea
Re-establishment of relations with Turkey and return of the Turkish destination to tourism had an almost immediate impact on the domestic tours. If after the ban on the sale of tickets to Turkey, southern resorts of Russia rubbed their hands waiting for a mass flow of tourists, now they sound the alarm. Famous blogger Ilya Varlamov posted on Twitter that hoteliers in Feodosia complain about the cancellation of bookings because of the opening of Turkey. According to him, almost a half of the hotels is empty.
However, representatives of tour agencies assure that at present the situation is not too catastrophic. For instance, as the president of the Association of tour Agencies of Tatarstan and director of Persona Grata agency Ramil Miftakhov told, 'indeed some tourists started to cancel the tours they already bought, but these cases are not mass but sporadic because now it's unclear what flights we will have and when'.
Leonid Press, director general of Sten, did not notice any cancellation of tours because of the opening of Turkey. But, in his point of view, first of all, Crimea will suffer: 'Undoubtedly, some people are keen on Turkey only, they will try to cancel the tours they already bought. Crimea will be the first to suffer. Those who are not allowed to go abroad go on visiting it, though there are many such people,' he says.
Sergey Pasechnik, director general in Companion SP, did not exclude the possibility of review of the already purchased tickets: 'Those who were going to visit the visa-free country are likely to refuse the tickets they bought. Turkey can be compared with Crimea and Sochi only in terms of no visa needed. In this sense, Turkey is a competitive destination. It is possible those who booked and still are free of fines review the tour they already bought'.
But Maya Lomidze, executive director of ATOR, doesn't notice such occurrences: 'Independent tourists are likely to cancel the tours they confirmed. In the organised segment, it doesn't happen'.
More calls, fewer sales
The situation of the sale of tours was not too shocking. It should be reminded that yesterday there was information that demand for tours to Turkey was 10 times bigger than supply. As Maya Lomidze, executive director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia, explained, we should not speak about 'a demand that exceeds supply': 'The state of affairs in the market is good enough, sales are in the process'.
The information that demand for Turkey exceeds supply is not completely correct. They mean the number of requests: their volume exceeds the amount of real sales. There are many requests, questions and calls. Real sales are few, while demands are running high. Almost one in three tourists calls to know about Turkey. But not every call turns into a real purchase because it is expensive for a while: there are no charter flights.
Sergey Pasechnik did not see a high demand: 'Turkey has a positive impact on the situation in the tourist market, of course. It is even morally good for the major part of the clients who go on holiday in summer because they have an additional opportunity to choose. It can be chosen quickly, visited for two-three days or a month: it is very comfortable. No big tour operator planned such a sudden change of the situation to return Turkey'.
According to Press, the return of Turkey is not very beneficial to tour operators: 'They are not interested in this promotion. Apart from the tourists, no one needs it. Tour operators had all programmes prepared, there was a certain booking pattern for Greece, Cyprus, Tunisia. <...> A season is prepared at least 6 months in advance. It is a very unpleasant situation in the middle of the season. Tour operators are connected with Turkey – they want to help them, of course. But no one is going to put special effort: they paid an upfront fee for hotels in other countries. The opening of Turkey is a threat to the existing programmes'.
Kamil Tarzimanov from Salavat tourist bureau has a more optimistic outlook on the situation of demand: 'Turkey is not a surprise. All lovers of Turkey became active. Demand is at the level of the previous years; there are not many accidental people. There is no special buzz and upsurge seen on TV'.
'Our people are likely to fly via Istanbul, in spite of the fact that there was a terrorist attack...'
The experts think that the main problem of a small transfer of calls to purchases is in prices for tours that directly depend on the presence of charter flights.
'The return of charter flights is quite a serious and big work. It is usually done long before the start of the season. This is why now there won't be any cheap package tours from Kazan, for example. And the variants with a direct flight have not been prepared yet. I think charters flights from Kazan will appear in a month, which is the soonest,' Sergey Pasechnik explains.
Leonid Press, director general of Sten, agrees with him: 'Turkey has opened on paper only, there are no charter flights. Cheap and comfortable Turkey means a direct flight from Kazan. People, of course, call and ask, but charter flights are unlikely to appear earlier than in August. As for the tours from Moscow, our people won't fly from Moscow. They are likely to fly via Istanbul, in spite of the fact that there was a terrorist attack. A 'regular' flight is expensive, and it is impossible to carry such volumes using regular flights. If there were 3-4 Kazan-Turkey flights per day in season, now Turkish Airlines and Aeroflot from Moscow fly five times per week for jaw-dropping prices. It is difficult to say something about the return of charter flights. At the beginning of the season, it was clear no one was going to fly to Turkey, all airlines that affiliated with tour operators gave all leased planes back. Today it is necessary to return them, obtain permissions, return workers to the offices of the host agencies. It is all very difficult. It is a serious and big business, and nothing will come back just because somebody told 'let's fly'.
Kamil Tamirzyanov from Salavat tourist bureau tells that it was promised to return charter flights from Kazan from 7 July. Ramil Miftakhof, president of the Association of Tourist Agencies of Tatarstan, says 'the very operators state charter flights will appear during 10-14 working days. But no one knows how it will work in real life'.
Leonid Press: 'Our people won't fly from Moscow. They are likely to fly via Istanbul, in spite of the fact that there was a terrorist attack. A 'regular' flight is expensive'. Photo: redigo.ru
Even Maya Lomidze, executive director of ATOR, cannot answer the question of when a charter flight will appear: 'I think this week it will be clear when, from where and how many charter flights will appear. Now no tour operator offers tours with a charter flight. Charter flights are unlikely to appear in Moscow and other regions at the same time: it will depend on the behaviour of the demand in a city. This is why the amount of requests is an important indicator: it allows tour operators to estimate the demand in a place. There will be flights from Moscow, Petersburg, Yekaterinburg for sure. The rest of the cities is unknown at this moment'.
Discount will possibly be 30-40%
Speaking about the prices, the majority of the experts who were asked expect a reduction of today's prices. It should be reminded that an analyst of Realnoe Vremya defined the 'price of fear', that is to say, a discount that can affect a decision to visit turbulent Turkey – it is 20% of the August prices in 2015.
Maya Lomidze says the price level in Turkey is lower than last year, but 'we don't have charter flights, this is why it is expensive to use regular flights: before their launch, the final price is higher than last year's price'.
Lomidze as well as the majority of the experts thinks, nevertheless, it won't be possible to reach last year's level: there is extremely little time. Ramil Miftakhov, president of the Association of Tourist Agencies of Tatarstan, also thinks so. At the same time, surprised, Lomidze noted 'tourists are not afraid of Turkey concerning the terrorist attack in Istanbul: the situation in resorts seems to be quieter.'
Sergey Pasechnik, director general of Companion SP, also thinks about the reduction in prices: Now prices for many 5-star hotels we work with are lower than last year. The more expensive the hotel is, the clearer the difference is. A specific price is very individual, it depends on the possibilities of a hotel to reorient. If it is awash with clients from other countries, it is unlikely to reduce its prices for Russian clients. If not, it will be glad to reduce them. The discount will possibly be 30-40%'.
Leonid Press, director general of Sten, also agrees with him: 'Turkish hotels will have to give a discount because no one will visit them: what is the point of going to Turkey if there is Greece that at least is not worse? Turkey has two advantages: cheap and no visa'. Meanwhile, Kamil Tarzimanov noted the price level has almost changed, their order will be the same because the situation in the economy did not change.