''Despite growing economy, part of our incomes go to federal level''
Tatarstan will require 17 billion rubles for implementation of Putin’s ‘’May decrees’’ alone
Tatarstan GRP volume will increase by 2,8% in 2017 and amount to 2,072 billion rubles. In 2018-2021, economy growth is forecasted in the range of 3-3,8%. All budgets of municipal organisations are planned to be deficit-free, the deficit of consolidated budget in the nearest three years will amount to about 6 billion rubles annually. Such plans were voiced at a recent meeting the Cabinet of Ministries, where an economic and social development forecast of Tatarstan and the amounts of budgetary revenues by 2020 were presented. Having listened to the ministers of economic and finance ministries, President of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov advised the districts to conduct their expenditures ''without excessive freedom'', to ministers – to pay attention to tax increase at the expense of charged services. Read the details in the material of Realnoe Vremya.
Urals price in 2018 — $41 per barrel
''The Russian economy has adapted to new economic conditions — there is a transition from stabilization to a growth trend,'' Prime Minister of Tatarstan Alexey Pesoshin gave a rather optimistic picture, anticipating the report of Minister of Economy Artyom Zdunov.
Zdunov told about how Tatarstan will develop in 2017-2020. But he also began with a nation-wide economic agenda, pleasing the audience with a message that by the end of 2017 it is expected a GDP growth by no less than 2% (last year it was a reduction by 0,2%). Tatarstan dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators, on the contrary, exceed national trends.
''In January-July, GRP growth rate amounted to 3,9%. The main contribution was made by industry and trade. Industrial production increased by 3,4%,'' the minister said. ''Besides, it has been ensured a growth in manufacturing industry due to engineering, chemical and petrochemical industries.''
GRP volume by the end of this year, according to Tatarstan Ministry of Economy, will amount to 2,072 trillion rubles with the dynamics of 2,8%. The index of industrial production is expected at 102,4%. The volume of supplied products will amount to about 2,148 trillion rubles.
Then the minister went on socio-economic development of Tatarstan for 2018-2020, which according to him, ''take into account the ongoing sanctions by the EU and the US''. Zdunov drew attention to the fact that all the predictions were based on some fundamental factors. The price of Urals oil in 2018 is expected to reach $40,8 per barrel, in 2019 — $41,6, in 2020 — $42,4. The dollar rate, according to Tatarstan Ministry of Economy, will amount to 69,8, 71,2 and 72,7 rubles respectively. Inflation will not increase and will remain at the level of 4%.
One and a half percent from KAMAZ
In 2018-2021, economic growth is forecasted in the range of 3-3,8%. It is higher than the average national dynamics. In 2018, the industrial production index is forecasted at the level of 105,7%, in 2019 — 103,2%, in 2020 — 102,9%, in 2021 — 102,4%. The main engines of economic growth, as before, will be manufacturing.
Artyom Zdunov called major investment projects that will support a growth of the regional economy. Among them there are the completion and commissioning of the new unit ELOU-AVT-6 at TANECO in 2018, the serial production by KAMAZ and Daimler of the new truck cab in 2019, the construction by Nizhnekamskneftekhim of the new ethylene production in 2018-2021. TAIF-NK's launch of the heavy residue conversion complex alone at the end of this year will ensure a growth of industrial production in 2018 by 1,7%, and KAMAZ by its new project can add another 1,5%.
The relative share of manufacturing industries in the structure of the regionsl industry will grow by 2021 up to 71,4%. For this period, it is planned to increase production of oil products, food products, rubber and plastic products.
A quarter of the Tatarstan enterprises are unprofitable
The minister of economy spoke about the prospects of other sectors of the regional economy. In agriculture, it is expected to increase production to 260 billion rubles in 2017, or by 5,1% compared to the previous year. In 2018-2021, the annual growth rate of agricultural production is expected at the level of 1,9%.
This year, a growth of retail trade turnover is estimated to be 1,5% (which indicated of a recovery in consumer activity). The positive trend will continue in the coming years, the growth rate will be 1-2,2%.
As for corporate profits, one of the major indicators of economic efficiency, its level is significant in the mining industry. In manufacturing, it has been marked a decline. In 2017, the total profit will amount of 381,3 billion rubles, in the future it is expected an increase to 425 billion rubles by 2021.
According to the results of ''the first half of 2017, a quarter of the Tatarstan enterprises are unprofitable,'' admitted Artyom Zdunov.
Investments become more affordable. But not for everyone
The investments in fixed capital provide major fuelling of economic growth. The share of investments in the regional GRP is more than 33%, which is significantly higher than the national average, the official assured. At the same time, the decrease in bank interest rates caused an increase in the share of borrowed funds in the structure of investments.
''Due to lower rates on loans and a growth of profitability, credit resources have become more accessible for different industries,'' stated the minister of economy.
At the same time, for small and medium businesses the bank loans still remain inaccessible.
''For the access of SMEs to credit resources, we will continue work on development of reflexive mechanisms of support such as Guarantee Fund of the Republic of Tatarstan and the Fund of Micro Financing,'' said Zdunov.
By the end of the year, the volume of investments will amount to 677,2 billion rubles, which is by 34 billion roubles more than last year. In the medium term, the investment growth rate is projected at the level of 0,9 to 2,6%.
Revenues for the three taxes will reduce by almost 13 billion rubles next year
Anticipating the report of Minister of Finance of Tatarstan Radik Gayzatullin, Aleksey Pesoshin said that the budget for 2018 will be implemented through state programs. That is, the money will be allocated for specific program objectives and each budget ruble will perform a specific task. The budget, according to Prime Minister, will retain a social orientation, the share of social sphere will be increased, salary costs will increase in accordance with the ''May decrees'' of President of Russia. At the same time, the amount of funds allocated for major repairs, road works will remain at the same level. The head of government noted that the consolidated budget of the republic will continue to be deficit, but ''it is an objective factor''.
The minister of finance reported that over 8 months of this year, tax and non-tax revenues were mobilized to the consolidated budget of the region in the amount of 164,8 billion roubles (a growth in comparison with the similar period of 2016 by 9,5%).
In 2018, revenues from the three sources of income — income tax, excise tax and non-tax revenues — will decline by 12,7 billion rubles. The total volume of tax and non-tax revenues of the consolidated budget for 2018 will amount to 224 billion rubles, in 2019 — 230, in 2020 — 238 billion rubles.
17 billion rubles for implementation of Putin's ''May decrees''
The expenditure side of the consolidated budget excluding federal funds in 2018 is projected to be 230,1 billion rubles, in 2019 — 235,8 billion rubles, in 2020 — 243,7 billion rubles. Despite the fact that municipal budgets are projected to be balanced, the deficit of the consolidated budget next year will amount to 6,1 billion roubles, but then it will slightly drop to 6 billion rubles in 2019 and to 5,9 billion rubles in 2020. Major expenditures are based on increasing public sector wages for the realization of the ''May decrees'' by the president of Russia — about 17 billion rubles. The expenditures on education in 2018 will reach 67,8 billion rubles. Other costly item remain healthcare at the amount of 53,3 billion rubles, and social policy — 34,1 billion rubles. Expenditures in the section ''National economy'' is expected to be 26,3 billion rubles, ''Housing and utilities'' — 9,3 billion rubles.
Summing up the meeting, Rustam Minnikhanov went through the main expenditure items of the budget next year, noting that ''we need 17 billion rubles for implementation the president's ''May decrees'' alone.'' He also recalled about a loss of almost 13 billion rubles of budget revenues.
''You should understand that although the economy is growing, our real income go to the federal level,'' the president said. ''Profit tax, excises on vodka, and other excise taxes, non-tax revenues. We estimate in the following year 12-13 billion rubles, it's real.''
Addressing to the heads of the municipalities, the president urged them not to relax, having a balanced budget, and to behave with the expenditures ''without excessive freedom''. Besides, the head of the republic advised the heads of ministries and departments to consider the development of charged services, but at the same time to behave in this matter ''reasonably'' and not to transfer all massively to these services in healthcare.