‘Three-digit rates will be the norm this year,’ an economist says
The dollar is below 90 rubles for the first time since September 2024 — for how long and how the situation will affect the Russian market
Against the backdrop of the recent conversation between the presidents of Russia and the United States, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, the dollar fell below 90 rubles for the first time since September 2024. But, according to Realnoe Vremya experts, it is too early to rejoice. Is it possible for the Russian currency to strengthen further? Here, economists' opinions diverged: “the currency market is like a hysterical lady.” Read about the possible scenarios for the development of events and how a sharp rise in the ruble can affect the economy in a report of Realnoe Vremya.
The dollar is below 90 rubles for the first time in six months
On 13 February, the dollar on the Russian interbank market fell below 91 rubles for the first time since 18 September 2024. At the same time, on Forex it fell to 89 rubles — also for the first time in six months. At the moment, the rate is fixed at 91 rubles.
However, the growth of the ruble is not all. The Moscow Exchange reported record trading volumes in shares, recorded against the backdrop of news about a telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
The total trading volume in shares on 12 February reached 422.5 billion rubles, which is the highest figure since March 2022. The trading volume in the evening session amounted to 237 billion rubles, also reaching a record high.
During the telephone conversation, which lasted an hour and a half, Putin and Trump discussed the exchange of citizens, the settlement of the situation in Ukraine, the Middle East settlement, the Iranian nuclear program and bilateral Russian-American relations. The leaders agreed to continue personal contacts.
The growth continued during the morning session on Thursday, the Moscow Exchange index reached its maximum since May last year, 3289.64 points. The exchange also recorded a record trading volume in shares and bonds in its entire history — 85 billion rubles. The price index of government bonds of the Moscow Exchange RGBI updated the maximum since 24 December 2024 reaching 107.41 points.
“This is speculative activity”
The current appreciation of the ruble is undoubtedly connected with the recent conversation between the presidents of Russia and the United States. There are no other reasons, as well as prerequisites. This opinion was expressed in a conversation with Realnoe Vremya by chief economist at PF Capital consultancy Yevgeny Nadorshin.
At the same time, a further depreciation of the ruble is inevitable, Nadorshin is sure. Such a sudden strengthening of the currency is extremely short-term, and the rate will soon again become three-digit.
“Three-digit rates will be the norm this year,” the newspaper’s interlocutor predicts. “There is still the question of how long the ruble will remain at two-digit values. But I do not consider the current rate to be beneficial for federal budget revenues. The situation with revenues will not improve due to a more expensive ruble — there is simply nothing to do it with.”
Such exchange rates will not last long, and it simply will not have time to influence the economic situation. The expert is confident that there are no reasons for inflation to slow down or prices to fall due to the current dollar exchange rate:
“It is difficult to understand what exchange rate importers are currently using, whose products are sold and will be sold on the Russian market. Most likely, no one will lower prices due to the exchange rate for products already imported. Perhaps the goods were imported to Russia at an exchange rate of 100 rubles or more. Why should they lower prices?”
At the same time, the import conditions for new deliveries have not yet been determined. It is unclear whether the previous import mechanisms will work or whether they will become irrelevant. And, according to the economist, some importers themselves have taken a break for now and are monitoring the further development of the situation, which affects their purchases of currency and the ruble exchange rate.
“Euphoria, then despondency”
Rustem Shayakhmetov, head of R-Invest company, did not agree with such pessimistic forecasts. In a conversation with Realnoe Vremya, he said that the unpredictability of further developments in the political arena does not allow making forecasts.
At the same time, there is also a scenario of favourable developments — in particular, new agreements between Russia and the United States. In this case, there is a chance for further strengthening of the ruble. Moreover, there is also a possibility of slowing inflation,” Shayakhmetov suggested.
“But the point is not even that the ruble exchange rate can become even higher. It is still unstable anyway. And all importers and exporters include these risks. They all care about stability, it is important to know that today the dollar costs 100 rubles, but tomorrow the rate will remain the same,” the economist believes.
Is it worth buying dollars now? It is more profitable to keep savings in rubles, the expert believes. This is due to the high Central Bank rate and the instability of the exchange rate.
