Maksim Shevchenko: ‘Karimov's regime was tyrannical. The majority of population hated him’
Is there life in Uzbekistan after Islam Karimov?
The media has recently reported contradictory information about that the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov died. However, there were no official reports of his death. The whole country, the neighbouring countries of Central Asia and Russia are in tension. What will happen to the country after Karimov? Why is Uzbekistan an artificial state formation? What does this country have in common with the Gulf monarchies? An expert, a journalist, a member of the Council on human rights under the President of the Russian Federation Maksim Shevchenko spoke on this topics to the correspondent of Realnoe Vremya.
Daughters, officials and security forces
Mr. Shevchenko, there is the news that the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov is likely to have died. The main question: who will be a successor?
According to the logic of such regimes, I can say that a successor will be one who has more apparatus influence, who will be able to weed out possible competitors. They call the name of Rustam Inoyatov, the head of the National Security Service of Uzbekistan (SNB). Although he is not a successor, he is 72 years old, he is not very young. Also the call the name of the Prime Minister (Shavkat Mirziyoev – editor's note). I think that a successor in such a tyrannical authoritarian regime is impossible in the classical form, as Karimov has two daughters but no sons. He cannot hand over the power to his daughters – neither Lola nor Gulnara. He was preparing Gulnara once, but he failed. I think there will be a divvying up, there will be a very serious struggle for power.
Is there a possibility that the security forces will take control of the situation in their hands?
It has already been in their hands. In Uzbekistan, everything belonged to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, SNB, state security. They controlled everything. Especially after the Andijan massacre, they have taken control over the whole situation and they determine it.
Maksim Shevchenko: «According to the logic of such regimes, I can say that a successor will be one who has more apparatus influence, who will be able to weed out possible competitors. The call the name of Rustam Inoyatov, the head of the National Security Service of Uzbekistan (SNB). Although he is not a successor, he is 72 years old, he is not very young.' Photo: Pang Xinglei / Xinhua / Globallookpress.com
You have mentioned the President's daughters Gulnara and Lola. What happened to Gulnara? Why she was removed from her father?
Because the dad was given the folder. They say it was Inoyatov but I do not know exactly, I was not present. In the folder there were some documents which said that she took too much, from his point of view.
Invented states
The experts predict the threat of a civil war in the country. What forces in the Republic may destabilize the situation?
Karimov's regime was tyrannical. The majority of population hated him. At the same time, Karimov has created a stable group of elites, who lived at the expense of the people, distanced themselves from them and will cling to their power. Of course, such situation is everywhere in the former Soviet Union space – either authoritarian or tyrannical regimes. Because of its multinationality, Russia is more or less democratic, although it is certainly authoritarian. Due to different nationalities in the regions, the diversity, in Russia strong authoritarianism has transformed into a strong, bureaucratic state, but still with the centralization of power.
All these states, especially Central Asian ones, they are all invented, they had not existed before. Their comrade Stalin invented them. On their place, there were three states — Bukhara, Khiva and Kokand. They were very ancient states, taking its origin from very ancient Tajik states. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were divided on the basis of economic considerations and not on the real settlement of people. The meaning of this Soviet carve-up was the destruction of the ancient borders of the khanates and Emirates, the creation of entirely new systems, new ethnic communities. To some extent, they succeeded.
As these states were new, their history was written from scratch. They tried to trace Uzbekistan to amir Timur, the Tajiks – to the Samanids. This, of course, works very poorly. But these people understood that it is only possible to keep these areas, sculpt the prototype of the new nations with the help of power authoritarian methods. Now we'll see if this scheme works.
Maksim Shevchenko: 'Karimov's regime was tyrannical. Majority of population hated him. At the same time, Karimov has created a stable group of elites, who lived at the expense of the people, distanced themselves from them, and will cling to their power.' Photo: kremlin.ru
Colonial country: rich elite and poor people
Under whose influence is the leadership of the country? Under Russian or Western?
Karimov was under neither influence, he was completely independent authoritarian ruler. And it was not necessary for him to be under someone's influence. He solved the issues himself, based on the objectives of his family and how he himself saw their state.
What was Uzbekistan like in the time of Karimov? How do you remember it?
An authoritarian state on the verge of tyranny where the elite lived very well, comfortable, great. But the people in the province lived fantastically poorly, many did not speak Russian. The Uzbek crowd came to Russia — absolutely hostile to them country, there they were humiliated, exterminated. I think it was mafia, which sold living labour, actually slaves, was directly related to Uzbekistan. It is a country of such contrasts. It was turned into an ordinary colonial Islamic country, like Pakistan: rich elite and extremely poor people.
In general, all countries of the Islamic world, except Turkey, are conditionally Islamic states: Saudi Arabia, as well as Pakistan. All the elite of the Islamic world is delivered by Western colonialists. These Islamic states are needed only for one purpose: to extract wealth of the Islamic world, not to allow them to develop. The wealth of the Islamic world provides the West with technological and financial advantage. Only England annually receives more than $10 trillion from the Gulf countries. Therefore, Britain is ahead of all. Not because they are smart and tech — their cars are bad enough, worse than the Japanese ones, frankly speaking, but because they have cheap money at the expense of the colonization and occupation of the Islamic world, by planting of the comprador elite there. The West has cheap money there, which provide technological and financial advantages. Nobody has cheap money except the West.