Andrey Zakhvatov: ‘Those who wish confrontation between Russia and Kazakhstan should call psychiatrists’

'I do not think that a dynastic rule is the worst variant of state structure'

Mr Zakhvatov, how do you think — how serious is an illness of Nazarbaev? Despite the fact that they say about a cold, it is alarming that for the first time it has been officially announced about his illness.

Rumors about an illness of Nursultan Nazarbayev were before as well — in 2008. In order you understood my attitude to this subject, I'll tell you about one case. A few years ago my neighbour died at his home from a severe illness late in the evening. The widow immediately called an ambulance, told about husband's death and then called me. I went to their house. Literally 10 minutes later an agent from a district funeral service rang the doorbell with their price list — he was given news from the ambulance. I politely asked him to call tomorrow morning. 20 minutes later — another bell ring at the door, it was an aget from another competing funeral firm — this time from the regional center. He came in half an hour. It was very unpleasant for the widow — they pushed, elbowing, with their price-lists for coffins when they were not asked to.

'My opinion — you can discuss not a disease but a possible successor. And try not to associate this discussion with a disease.' Photo: akorda.kz

A cold can also be serious. As you know, much more serious are complications that may occur after a cold. Strictly speaking, it is the doctors who should say how severe a disease is (I mean medical assessment). I think we should not discuss this topic publically. At least because these discussions are unpleasant for relatives of a sick person and for himself.

My opinion — you can discuss not a disease but a possible successor. And try not to associate this discussion with a disease.

Who can be called a successor to Nazarbayev? His daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva and a businessman Kairat Boranbayev have repeatedly been called as candidates.

Recently I have answered such question. I can repeat once again, — I do not think that a dynastic rule is the worst variant of state structure. If a dynasty rules sensibly and the country is prosperous — why not? In the second half of the twentieth century in the United States the presidents of the country were Bush Senior and Bush Junior. A successful European Union country Denmark has been ruled until the present day by a dynasty of Glücksburg — today the throne belongs to the Queen Margrethe II.

The ratings of the most likely successors of Nazarbayev have been compiled not for the first time and the leaders of these ratings are known. But in politics, things can change quickly and unexpectedly for the authorities. The Nazarbayev's circle is well aware that if their leader will be replaced by a candidate from opposition, their personal losses can be enormous. I think that there will be no significant changes. And here's why.

'I believe that the name of a successor to Nazarbayev is not the main issue. The main thing is the stability that needs to be maintained for next President of Kazakhstan.' Photo: liter.kz

First, despite the fact that Nursultan Nazarbayev has been in power for more than a quarter century (due to that, a number of politicians calls him an authoritarian leader), Kazakhstan, as well as other post-Soviet countries of Central Asia, is ruled by a 'collective president', who does not need surprises. It would be strange to think that Nazarbayev and his circle do not think about their future and the future of Kazakhstan.

Second, a sharp change of priorities in domestic and foreign policy is not peculiar to Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan's economy is largely influenced by its two largest neighbours — Russia and China. As they say, if Russia sneezes Kazakhstan begins to cough — this is how the current Russian crisis is affecting Kazakhstan. Therefore, the main priority of any successor of Nursultan Nazarbayev will be preventing of the worsening of the situation in Kazakhstan. It will be possible only by retaining the existing institutions, without their dissolution and shocks.

For these reasons, I believe that the name of a successor to Nazarbayev is not the main issue. The main thing is the stability that needs to be maintained for next President of Kazakhstan.

'Why sour relations between neighbours, whose common border is more than 7,5 thousand km?'

Who do you asses the current policy of Kazakhstan? Can Kazakhstan be called an ally of Russia?

I can talk about current domestic and foreign policy of Kazakhstan for a long time. So, I rather repeat my forecast — in general, in the foreseeable future the domestic and foreign policy will not change.

As for the allied relations between Kazakhstan and Russia — they still exist. Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Union, a CSTO member. However, if the national interests can be affected, independent Kazakhstan is able to defend them at any level.

'Why spoil relations with the neighbors, whose common border is over 7.5 thousand kilometres? They need to trade, live in peace and develop like all normal countries. The confrontation of Russia and Kazakhstan — it's crazy and those who wish such confrontation need to call psychiatrists.' Photo: akorda.kz

Has the long rule of Nursultan Nazarbayev affected the politics somehow?

Answering this question, it is important to understand what I mean. As you know, at the beginning of his first presidential term Nursultan Nazarbayev promoted the main principle of his policy — foreign policy is the continuation of the domestic policy. In other words, the main vectors of foreign policy should be built in the interests of the state, but not in the interests of the leader and his circle (as it sometimes happens).

As you can see from the Foreign Policy Concept of Kazakhstan until 2020 and the Strategy Kazakhstan-2050, formulated by Nazarbayev, the main principle has not been revised and, in my opinion, will not be.

Is there a threat that an unfriendly to Russia party will come to power? Is there a threat of civil war in Kazakhstan?

I do not think that a resignation of Nazarbayev from the presidency will lead to such a drastic change in the relations of Kazakhstan with Russia. Where is the logic? Why spoil relations with the neighbours, whose common border is more than 7.5 thousand kilometres? They need to trade, live in peace and develop like all normal countries. A confrontation of Russia and Kazakhstan — it's crazy and those who wish such confrontation need to call psychiatrists.

A civil war is also madness. I believe that the Kazakh elite has enough sense not to fight with each other within their country.

Thank you for the interview.