Robert Dover: ‘The UK very poorly understands Russia's motivations and positioning’
Researcher of the history of intelligence tells about the absence of a manoeuvre on Al-Asaad, new iron lady and a possible 'replay' of the Referendum
Robert Dover, Senior Lecturer in Intelligence and International Security at the University of Leicester, talked to a correspondent of Realnoe Vremya and shared his opinion about the new Cabiner of Her Majesty with her. The author of books on the impact of intelligence quite laconically gives to understand that a thaw in the relations with Russia is not expected.
'Russia is clearly the dominant foreign power in relation to Syria'
Robert Dover: 'A replayed referendum might be had but only to debate something like access to the single market, or to leave the single market altogether. There might be a trade off element to the question'. Photo: le.ac.uk
Will the Cabinet of Theresa May turn its face towards Europe in order to correct the mistakes of Brexit? What do you think?
Mrs May was not a keen remain campaigner. In reality she may well have softly preferred 'leave' but been torn by her loyalty to David Cameron or her party (in stark contrast to Johnson and Gove), but didn't express it. She has made it clear that she wants to deliver the Brexit, but this is an economically ruinous choice for the UK. That particular economic realisation will see the government determined to retain access to the single market, but to try and place some 'emergency brakes' on unfettered immigration. So, she will have to offer concessions to the EU, and Mrs Merkel in particular for this to succeed.
Will Great Britain get closer to Russia in terms of Syria?
As a new Prime Minister she has the ability to do things that the previous PM was tied on because of his previous statements and so on. In the case of Syria, Cameron had been very outspoken about Al-Asaad, without a Plan B that he might remain. Russia is clearly the dominant foreign power in relation to Syria and so clearly the UK would benefit from a more positive engagement with Russia in relation to the Middle East.
Is a 'replay' of the Referendum theoretically possible?
A replayed Referendum might be had but only to debate something like access to the single market, or to leave the single market altogether. There might be a trade-off element to the question. So, for example, stay in the single market and retain the 45% of trade we do with Europe and accept freedom of movement, or reject the single market, etc.
'She will be more iron lady than Thatcher'
The problem of British citizens working in EU is aggravating because of Brexit. Will Mrs May be able to neautralise the losses?
No, probably not. She will need the help of the EU-27 to do so. And there's a lot of politics to be played out before that is clear.
'She will be more iron lady than Thatcher. Thatcher had progressive touches. The Conservative Party is far more right wing than the one of the 1980s.' Photo: bagnet.org
Is Theresa May a renewed version of Margaret Thatcher?
She will be more iron lady than Thatcher. Thatcher had progressive touches. The Conservative Party is far more right wing than the one of the 1980s.
Can Boris Johnson's figure be a solution in the relations of the United Kingdom with Russia?
I doubt he will be the key to that relationship. Reducing inflammatory language and engaging in understanding our mutual positions is key. The UK very poorly understands Russia's motivations and positioning.
Thank you for your answers!
Reference
Dr Robert Dover is Senior Lecturer in Intelligence and International Security at the University of Leicester. He holds a BA and MA from the University of Nottingham and a PhD from the University of Bristol.
He studies the issues of intelligence and international security focusing on the impact of intelligence on aspects of government and private business, the politics of defence policy and defence reform and more recently the operation of power politics in the transatlantic area and of the operation of hybrid warfare. He also has a long-standing interest in the study of the international arms trade, and its relationship to political power.
Robert Dover is on the Editorial Board of the Journal of Intelligence History, and SageOpen.
Currently, Mr Dover is working on a book on the politics of British arms sales since 1997 with Mark Phythian, in developing his work on hybrid warfare and publishing his research on network politics, using the case study of international corporation tax policy.
He also writes many policy pieces for the European Commission.