‘88% of expenses have a social focus’: Tatarstan draws up a budget for 2025
The Committee on Budget, Taxes and Finance has recommended a budget law for adoption by the State Council in the first reading
The discussion of the draft law on the budget of the republic for 2025 and the planning period 2026-2027 has finished in the relevant committees of the State Council of Tatarstan. On 3 October, at the end of the meeting of the Committee on Budget, Taxes and Finance, it was recommended for adoption by the State Council in the first reading. The report of Realnoe Vremya from the committee meeting — about the specifics of the republic's budget for 2025 and subsequent years, the damage caused to it by changes in federal tax legislation, and the main source of replenishment of the state treasury.
When people are definitely new oil
Yakunin stressed another important point: the draft budget for 2025 provides for a significant increase in the wage fund in the national economy of the republic — by 174 billion rubles. At the same time, as Finance Minister Radik Gayzatullin later reported, the main budget revenues are traditionally expected from the personal income tax — 186 billion rubles to the consolidated budget and 130.2 billion to the budget of the republic. Income tax receipts in 2025 should amount to 128 billion rubles.
“Calculations on the tax were made based on the salary fund projected by the Ministry of Economy, the expected amount of tax receipts in the current year and the rate of its growth in the planned period," said Gayzatullin.
Answering the questions of the committee members, the Finance Minister noted that for objective reasons there was a sharp decrease in budget revenues from oil industry enterprises:
“Last year we received 58 billion taxes from them, this year we expect 43 billion. Now the dollar has jumped sharply, perhaps something will change…"
And the increase in budget revenues from personal income tax, in his opinion, indicates a positive trend in the economy — an increase in the wage fund at Tatarstan enterprises.
Forecast is consistently modest
First Deputy Minister of Economy Oleg Pelevin announced plans to ensure the volume of gross regional product at the level of 5 trillion rubles in 2024, specifying that, according to the forecast, in 2025 it should reach 102.9% of the level of 2024, and the industrial production index is projected in 2025 at the level of 103.1% of the previous one.
At the same time, in 2025 and in the next two years, a sharp slowdown in production growth in most sectors of the republic's economy is predicted. According to the data provided by Pelevin, the annual growth of gross regional product by 0.1% is expected only in 2025, and in 2026 it will decrease by 0.3%, in 2027 it will grow by only 0.1% and will not reach the level of 2025.
In construction in 2025, the volume growth in comparable prices will be only 102% and even by 2027 it will not reach the forecast indicator of 2024 of 108%. A similar forecast has been made for industry: in 2025, growth will be 102.9% (in 2024 — 102.8%), in 2026 — 102.6%, in 2027 — 102.7%. Retail sales are expected to fall from 107.4% in 2024 to 103.6% in 2025, 103.5% in 2026 and 103.1% in 2027.
A “surprise” from Russian lawmakers
During the discussion of the draft budget, it became clear that the introduction of a progressive scale of personal income tax rates in 2025 will not affect Tatarstan's budget revenues in any way. Answering questions from deputies, Oleg Pelevin explained that all additional revenues in this case will go to the federal budget.
Other changes in federal tax legislation concerning the increase in standard personal income tax deductions (minus 1 billion rubles annually) and the transition of taxpayers from the general taxation system to a simplified one (minus 3 billion rubles annually) will have a negative impact on the budget of the republic.
“Everything is under control”
“New grain was indeed harvested at the level of last year. But at the same time, we have more beets, more potatoes," the speaker objected.
In response to a question from State Council deputy Fadbir Safin about the share of unprofitable enterprises in the republic, Oleg Pelevin said that currently it is 22%, and clarified that before this figure was higher — 24-25%.
“All our enterprises are under control — these are more than 400 enterprises," he assured. “We monitor their risk and solvency on a weekly basis, and, if necessary, develop a plan to improve the situation.
Besides, according to him, unprofitability does not always indicate a serious threat. It may occur temporarily — if a firm-standing company has invested in a large investment project.
In general, the revenue part of the consolidated budget for 2025 is projected to amount to 512.1 billion rubles, the expenditure part — 525.6 billion rubles, the deficit — 13.5 billion rubles. The republic's budget for 2025 is determined in the amount of 425.5 billion rubles in revenue, 439 billion rubles in expenses, a deficit of 13.5 billion rubles, but the budgets of municipalities are considered deficit-free, Finance Minister Radik Gayzatullin told deputies.
Balanced, deficit-free
At the same meeting of the committee, the director of the Territorial Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund, Alsu Miftakhova, presented the draft budget of the Territorial Fund of Compulsory Medical Insurance.
According to her, the amount of revenue from the budget of the Territorial Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund for 2025 is planned in the amount of 85.9 billion rubles, for 2026 — 91.7 billion rubles and for 2027 — 95.8 billion rubles. The fund's budget in 2025 and the planning period of 2026 and 2027 is balanced and planned to be deficit-free, she stressed.
She clarified that it is planned to spend 11.3 billion rubles on the implementation of measures not included in the basic program of compulsory medical insurance.
The draft law on the Territorial Fund of Compulsory Medical Insurance Budget was also recommended for the first reading.