Yelena Stryukova: ‘Nearly 60,000 square metres remain empty in Kazan’s biggest shopping malls’

Shopping malls of Kazan

Market indicators

• Aggregate supply in the segment of shopping malls is represented by 34 facilities* with a total area of over 1.1 million square metres. To analyse the market, we rest on the data on the biggest shopping malls. It is 12 shopping centres with a total area of 759,000 square metres. The rented area is 489,000 square metres.
• The share of vacant areas in Kazan’s shopping malls in the 4^th quarter of 2022 didn’t almost changed in comparison with the previous quarter and totalled 18% (0.2% compared to the late 3^rd quarter in 2022). Compared to 2021, vacant areas increased tenfold (1.8% by late 2021). Nearly 60,000 square metres remain empty in Kazan’s biggest shopping malls. Another 12,500 sq m are considered as those who suspended their commercial activity and tenants haven’t received expected income from these areas for almost a year.

• However, the rapid growth of the share of vacant areas stopped, but the number of opening of new stores doubled. During the fourth quarter, 41 new stores with a total area of 8.400 square metres opened.
• During 2022, 89 new stores with a total area of over 15.000 square metres opened. Given the average area of newly opened stores, we can at the moment talk about positive dynamics in the segment of small and mid-sized retail businesses. Obviously, the full replacement of big commercial giants isn’t the case in point. Seemingly, the market of shopping malls hit the bottom and there was seen a tendency for a slow recovery. Kotton, Gloria Jeans, New Yorker and others are gradually occupying vacant areas in the fashion segment, often getting finished areas and often with lighting and commercial equipment.
• After the critical fall in the attendance rate of shopping centres in summer 2020, the figure has looked stable for 2.5 years now. However, we cannot yet talk about the comeback to pre-crisis numbers of 2019: the total result of 2022 is 15% lower than in 2019. Attendance data in big shopping malls is presented by Focus Technologies.

There are unresolved issues only with Spanish group Indetex brands and Japanese Uniqlo among those operators who suspended their commercial activity. The rest seemed to determine the future of their chain stores. The French Mulliez family is selling commercial properties it owned, which were earlier used for the needs of Decathlon chain.

New facilities

• New big shopping malls didn’t open in Kazan in 2022.
• New big shopping malls aren’t scheduled to open in Kazan in 2023.
• Community centre ART with an area of 40,000sq m under constructed built by UD Group is going to be launched in the second half of 2024 according to a plan.
• The fate of a new shopping centre of Agava company (Megastroy regional DIY chain) remains up in the air. The owner planned to create a clothing market, fresh market and even a food court on an area of 16,000 square metres. Nowadays nothing is clear when it comes to the concept, tenants and opening dates.
• In 2023, we will continue seeing how events will unfold at Moskovsky Bazaar, which was purchased by Kazantik for 175 million rubles at auctions in early 2022. Now it owns 1.5ha of land and a 50-year-old warehouse of 4,000 square metres.

The share of vacant areas in high-quality shopping malls of Kazan is comparable with the size of a big regional shopping centre. As for regional cities, as strange as it might sound, things with commercial property are better here.

A smaller number of international tenants (compared to Kazan) led to a smaller number of closures and suspension of commercial activity of tenants. The data on the share of free areas by late 2022 are in the table below. If we do not take RAMUS MALL in Nizhnekamsk, which opened more than a year ago where free areas are less than half the mall, the share of vacant spaces in the city will be 4%.

Tendencies and forecasts

• 2022 brought irreplaceable losses in chain operators.
• The redistribution of demand that began brought a big growth of sales of Russian companies of the fashion industry.
• E-commerce continues growing but the pace slowed down.
• Food discounters are increasing their footprint in regions and expand their target audience.
• The forecasted buzz around vacant commercial areas from Turkish, Uzbek, Korean, Chinese and other tenants didn’t justify itself. The replacement is being very slow and yet with a notable loss in quality and diversity.
• Provincial shopping centres and regional commercial property markets demonstrated greater resistance to the macroeconomic crisis of 2022. The list of tenants of shopping centres is again experiencing changes whose vector isn’t defined this time.