Population decline recorded in Russia for the first time

The reasons are low birth rate, car accidents and oncology diseases growth

In 2018, the statistics for the first time recorded a population decrease in Russia, which was by 86,600 people. In the ''red zone'', it is the vast majority of regions of the country, Tatarstan due to a declining dynamics of population growth can get into their number in a couple of years. Moreover, the number of deaths in Tatarstan has increased over the year. Two regions of the Volga Federal District — Saratov Oblast and Nizhny Novgorod Oblast — are in the top 3 with the greatest loss of population. The main causes of death — cardiovascular and oncology diseases. Read the details in the material of the analytical department of Realnoe Vremya.

In 2018, a population decline recorded for the first time

A population decrease began in Russia in 2017 becasue of the decline in birth rate (including caused by the demographic pit of the 1990s). As a result, however, the population even increased at the end of the year, however, by only 0,05%, but in 2018 a decline was still recorded statistically. The population of the Russian Federation by January 1, 2019 decreased by 86,600 people.

Tatarstan continues to occupy the 8th place among all regions in terms of population: by the end of 2018, 3,89 million people lived in Tatarstan — more than 4 million people lived in neighbouring Bashkortostan. At the same time, if the population decline in Bashkortostan continues not for the first year — in 2017 the population there decreased by 0,1%, a year later by 0,3%, then in Tatarstan the trend was still more positive.

However, even here the dynamics went down. In 2017, the population of Tatarstana increased by 0,23%, in 2018 — by 0,11% (or 4,400 people). A couple of similar years, and the decline of the population will begin in Tatarstan as well – and the ''psychologically-crucial'' mark of 4 million people will not be achieved.

Tatarstan is already close to getting into majority of regions where mortality exceeds birth rate

A number of large regions of the Volga Federal District finally moved in the ''red zone''. Thus, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast for 2 years lost more than 1% of the population (33,300 people), Samara Oblast – 0,7% (almost 20,000 people), Perm Krai — almost 1% (21,600 people), Saratov Oblast — 1,6% (38,400 people). Interestingly, the population growth for the second year continues in the same regions, however, its dynamics decreases every year. As a result, out of the ''green group of regions'', which showed population growth in 2017, last year Crimea(!) and Krasnoyarsk Krai, Sakhalin and Stavropol Krai, Kamchatka Krai, Nenets Autonomous District fell out. However, the ''Crimean outcome'' can be explained by the migration of Crimeans to Sevastopol, where the population has been growing for the second year in a row.

Now only 21 regions, including the Republic of Tatarstan, show positive dynamics. However, Tatarstan, as well as Kabardino-Balkaria, based on its growth rates is already very close to getting into a number of regions where the population decline continues for the second year in a row. The situation is best in Ingushetia (3,5% in two years), Leningrad Oblast (3%), Chechnya (3%), Sevastopol (3,3%), Tyumen Oblast, Moscow Oblast, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar Krai. Obviously, in some cases, the population growth is due to the growth of birth rate (Ingushetia, Chechnya), in others — the migration of people from less developed regions (Moscow, St. Petersburg).

Saratov and Nizhny Novgorod regions in the top 3 with greatest loss of population

A number of northern and far eastern regions (Magadan, Jewish Autonomous Oblast) and a dozen regions of Central and Northwestern Russia (Tver Oblast, Orel Oblast, Novgorod Oblast, Pskov Oblast, and Ivanovo Oblast) were among the regions that showed the greatest decline.

Mordovia lost the largest number of people in the Volga Federal District (almost 2% in two years), as well as Saratov Oblast and Kirov Oblast (more than 1,5%). At the same time, two regions of the Volga Federal District were in the top 3 worst subjects of the Russian Federation with the highest population decline in absolute values: Saratov Oblast was first (minus 38,400 people in 2 years), Nizhny Novgorod Oblast — the third (33,300 people). Between them, there is Kemerovo Oblast, which lost 35,000 people.

The number of deaths increased in six regions of the Volga Federal District — including Tatarstan

The main reason for the decline in population is the decline in birth rate, as the number of deaths continued to decline all these years: in 2016, 1,887 million people died, in 2017 — 1,82 million people, in 2018 — 1,8 million. This is also indicated by a decline in the number of new marriages. Thus, in Russia for 2 years, their number decreased by 7% to 916,900. In 2018, there was a catastrophic decrease in marriages by 13% compared to 2017, when the number of marriages for once exceeded 1 million.

Only in 10 regions the number of marriages for 2 years, if not increased, then at least did not fall, including in Bashkortostan (25,300 marriages in 2018). However, the fall relative to the results of 2017 affected almost all regions, except Karachay-Cherkessia. In Tatarstan, the number of marriages fell by 8% last year, falling by 3,6% in 2 years.

Despite the all-Russian decline in mortality, in 2018 the number of deaths increased in 32 regions, including, alas, in six regions of the Volga Federal District: Mari El (1,5%), Kirov Oblast (1,7%), Penza Oblast (1,4%), Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (0,5%), Bashkortostan (0,4%). Mortality in Tatarstan also increased by 1,7%: 43,900 people died in 2017, while in 2018 it was almost the same as in 2016 (44,700 people).

The regions that showed an increase in mortality traditionally included the northern and far eastern ones: Chukotka (20,6%), Nenets Autonomous District (6,7%), Sakhalin (5,8%) and Zabaykalsky Krai (4,6%). The number of deaths last year in Moscow increased by 1,5% to 120,700 people. And again, the number of deaths in the Caucasus regions — Karachay-Cherkessia, Dagestan, Chechnya and Kabardino-Balkaria — traditionally decreases.

If we calculate the death rate — the number of deaths per 100,000 population, the highest mortality in 2018 was recorded in the Central European regions of the Russian Federation: Pskov Oblast, Tver Oblast, Novgorod Oblast, Tula Oblast and Ivanovo Oblast — here in 2018 the death rate was more than 1,600 per 100,000 population. For comparison, in Tatarstan the mortality rate in 2018 was 1,15 thousand per 100,000 population, on average in Russia — 1,24 thousand. The highest mortality rate in the Volga Federal District was in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (1,48 thousand per 100,000 population), Kirov Oblast (1,47 thousand) and Penza Oblast (1,400).

In Tatarstan, the proportion of cancer deaths is higher than the Russian average

In almost half of the cases, people in Russia die from diseases of the circulatory system (cardiovascular diseases), although the proportion of deaths from these causes for 2 years decreased by 1,3%, from 900,000 to 842,000 people. The second place — cancer: the proportion of deaths from tumours (including malignant) did not only not reduce, but every year is growing, amounting to the results of 2018, almost 16% (288,800 people). In Tatarstan, the ''cancer share'' is even higher and more than 17% — 7,600 people died from cancer last year. The share of deaths from cardiovascular diseases (stroke, heart attack, etc.) is much higher in Tatarstan, it has increased by 1% in 2 years, amounting to 52,8% — 23,600 residents of Tatarstan died of these reasons in 2018.

The highest mortality rate from cancer is in Orel Oblast, Tula Oblast, Sevastopol, Kurgan Oblast, Tver Oblast and St. Petersburg: 240-260 people die from cancer per 100,000 population. For comparison, in Tatarstan this figure is slightly less than 200 people per 100,000 population. But this is far from the best indicators of Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan, where in 2018 less than 100 people died of cancer per 100,000 population.

Mortality from cardiovascular diseases

Among the regions with the largest share of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, in addition to Pskov Oblast, Orel Oblast, Novgorod Oblast and Vladimir Oblast (where 800 to 1000 people died from these causes per 100,000 population), Sevastopol and Crimea itself again entered with an indicator of 740-760 people per 100,000 population. For comparison, in Tatarstan a little more than 600 people per 100,000 population died from cardiovascular diseases. On average, the country has 573,6 people per 100,000 population.

Thus, the majority of Russians die from cancer or cardiovascular diseases – 62,2%.

The most dangerous region of the Volga Federal District — Kirov Oblast

In the Volga Federal District, Kirov Oblast and Mari El Republic suffer from alcohol poisoning most of all, where almost 12 people per 100,000 population per year are deadly poisoned. On average, in Russia this figure is 3,8 per 100,000 people per year.

The largest number of suicides relative to the population accounted for Chukotka (48,6 per 100,000), Altai (41,2), Buryatia (36,5) and Kurgan Oblast (33,6). In the Volga Federal District, in the crisis zone there are Udmurtia and the same Kirov Oblast, which, given the data above, in general is the most dangerous region of the Volga Federal District. In the Udmurt Republic, 28 people per 100,000 population commit suicide a year, in Kirov Oblast it is 27,5. The high mortality rate from suicide is in Perm Oblast — it is 24,4, and in Orenburg Oblast – 24,2. On average, in Russia 12 people per 100,000 population voluntarily leave the life, for comparison, in Tatarstan — 9,5.

Moscow and Chechnya are officially the most tranquil regions of the Russian Federation: here is a smaller proportion of killings and deaths in traffic accidents

A large share of murders, as well as suicides, also falls on disadvantaged regions. In Tuva, from homicide there were killed 27 people out of 100,000 population. In Amur Oblast and Chukotka — 16-17. It is surprising, of course, but the top 5 regions with the lowest proportion of murders per 100,000 people also includes Moscow — at the hands of criminals there died in 2018 only two people out of 100,000 people, the same — in Sevastopol. The safest regions — officially — can be considered Astrakhan Oblast and Chechnya. On average, 5 people out of 100,000 people die in Russia (7 people died two years earlier). In Tatarstan, the death rate from murder is lower than in most regions of the country: in 2018, it was only 3 people per 100,000 population.

It is also interesting that Moscow and Chechnya occupy the first or second place by safety in terms of mortality in road accidents. In the capital, 3 people per 100,000 people killed in accidents last year, in Chechnya — about the same. The top 10 regions for road safety also includes Saint Petersburg, where last year on roads there were lost 6 people on 100,000 population.

On average, the country's mortality in road accidents is decreasing. In 2018, 10 people out of 100,000 were killed on the roads, in Tatarstan — 9 (a year earlier, the mortality was higher, then it was 11 people per 100,000 population).

The most dangerous roads can be considered in Karachay-Cherkessia (almost 24 people per 100,000 die in a car accident), Adygea and Kalmykia, as well as in Crimea, where the death rate in accidents was 18 people per 100,000 population in 2018.

By Sergey Afanasyev