April expectations: will Russia be connected to SWIFT?

Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets Anatoly Aksakov believes that Rosselkhozbank may be connected to SWIFT as early as April. He made this statement last Friday after the publication of the results of the meeting of Russian and American expert groups.

A statement appeared on the Kremlin website that the Russian and American sides agreed to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea, the non-use of force and the prevention of the use of commercial vessels for military purposes. But this agreement will only come into force after a number of conditions are met, one of which is the lifting of sanctions against Rosselkhozbank and its connection to SWIFT.

Rosselkhozbank was disconnected from the international SWIFT interbank information transfer system as part of the sixth package of EU sanctions in June 2022. The bank plays an important role in financial services for the Russian agricultural sector, and its return to the system could significantly simplify international financial transactions.

The connection of Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT is also connected to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was signed in 2022 to export Ukrainian grain. However, Russia withdrew from this deal in 2023, pointing to the use of the initiative to attack Russian facilities. In total, 21 Russian banks have been disconnected from the international SWIFT system since the beginning of the BSI.

Firstly, the SWIFT headquarters are located in Belgium, and until the sanctions are lifted by the European Union, the connection of Rosselkhozbank is impossible. Currently, the EU continues the sanctions war against Russia and does not intend to lift any sanctions.

Secondly, there are different approaches to resolving the Ukrainian conflict, the expert adds. The US wants to end this conflict, which will bring them significant dividends. And the EU is doing everything to defeat Russia, or at least to inflict unacceptable damage on the Russian Federation, since the European Union considers Ukraine to be its zone of influence. “The opposing actions of these two players do not allow a quick compromise to be found in lifting sanctions from Rosselkhozbank. Although the US has powerful levers of pressure, and therefore a quick positive decision is possible, but unlikely,” the economist explains.

“Trump wants to achieve peace and he cares little about the interests of Russia, Ukraine, the EU, the most important thing for him is the interests of the US, since he understands them. If he believes that in order to achieve his goals, he needs to put pressure on Russia, he will do it. And many Western world politicians convince him of this, and it is quite possible that the lifting of sanctions against Rosselkhozbank will be removed from the negotiating agenda,” Rustem Shayakhmetov does not rule out.

“The US, by setting high tariffs for EU goods, laying claim to Greenland, and rigidly establishing its own rules for settling the Ukrainian conflict without coordinating with the EU, has exacerbated relations between the US and the EU. Under Biden, the US paid for its military presence in Europe, the lion's share of the West's expenses on the NWO, and actually supported the EU in its policy of EU dominance in Ukraine, without strengthening the US role primarily in the economy. After the US demanded that Ukraine conclude an onerous deal on minerals, the EU realized that the situation had changed dramatically, because now the US wants to be the main beneficiaries,” the expert says. “It was a shock to the EU that the US had ceased to be a “cash cow” for solving European problems. The EU has realized that Trump sees Europe as a powerful competitor that the US will harshly suppress, which strengthens the EU's “hawkish” position towards Russia.

For the Ukrainian authorities, the agreement on the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is of little interest, since the maritime logistics of Ukrainian food exports is well established, and the reduction of insurance payments is not critical. “When concluding the agreement, Russian producers will receive large benefits, and this is unacceptable for the current Ukrainian government. Moreover, this will be the first step in lifting anti-Russian sanctions. Therefore, Zelensky will most likely try to delay the negotiations," Shayakhmetov explains.

The conclusion of this agreement and its successful implementation will demonstrate that it is possible and necessary to negotiate with Russia. This will be a success for the United States and Russia. “At the same time, it will undermine the policies of the EU, Great Britain, Canada, and Ukraine towards Russia, who are eager for its defeat and are ready to sacrifice the finances and lives of Ukrainian citizens. All politicians understand this, so opponents of the agreement will do everything possible to ensure that it does not exist,” he emphasizes.

Now everything depends on whether Trump can force Zelensky to sign and implement the agreement on the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. “If he can, then the process of lifting sanctions against Russia will accelerate and then it is quite possible that this year Russian banks will be connected to SWIFT,” the economist summed up.

“At the same time, Trump’s request or demand is unlikely to have any effect, given the deterioration of relations between the Old and New Worlds, so I am rather sceptical about the possibility of reconnecting Russian banks to SWIFT in the foreseeable future,” the analyst summed up.