Gevorg Mirzayan: ‘Trump – it is good, but a breakthrough in Russian-American relations will not happen’
The role of ‘shy Trumpists’, defeat of Ukraine and ‘save the American dream’
Yesterday it became known that a new U.S. President will be an outrageous Republican Donald Trump. Although a day earlier, most experts counted on a Democrat Hillary Clinton. As an international political analyst and journalist Gevorg Mirzayan told, the Republican candidate has managed to mobilize his electorate, so he has won. Who is a supporter of Trump, how will his success affect the Russian-American relations, why should he reconcile with the Congress — the expert answered these questions in an exclusive interview to a correspondent of Realnoe Vremya.
According to Brexit scenario
Mr Mirzayan, why despite preliminary poll results, according to which Clinton was to win, Trump has won after all?
Here I see two interrelated variants. First, an election winner is not one who has a high rating but one who bring people to polling stations. Trump has succeeded in bringing his voters to the polling stations. The turnout of supporters of Trump turned out to be higher than of supporters of Hillary. Second, it is a situation that is slightly similar to Brexit. Let me remind you, during Brexit the actual results slightly differed from the sociological data. Then, when they began to investigate, it was found that a number of supporters of Brexit did not say that they were for Brexit because in the UK there was the wildest campaign, absolutely not democratic in terms of that they were supposed to be ashamed for Brexit: if you are for Brexit, you're a marginal, bad man, black sheep with all the consequences. People were ashamed, they didn't want to tell. But when they came to the polling stations, they were who they are. Moreover, psychologically, if you are jeered at for your point of view, you're more motivated to come to a polling station to tick the box and to show all these bastards: you ridicule me but I will do this. It's a kind of protest. It is the same thing in the USA. They even coined the term — 'shy Trumpists'. In fact, it is they who have affected the result, apparently. But again, in order to tell what is the reason, it is necessary so that the sociologists sprinkled ashes on their heads, calmed down and, finally, conducted a research to understand why they have screwed up so seriously for the second time.
Victory of Russia, defeat of Ukraine
How can the results affect the Russian-American relations?
Of course, we can negotiate with Trump, but we should not exaggerate a positive value. Trump — it is good, but a breakthrough in the Russian-American relations is not going to happen. There are forces that will block unique things of Trump. Besides, Trump won't be inclined to some drastic actions. Now he should reconcile with the Republicans in Congress, not to quarrel with them. He will need to seek a compromise. Plus, as a well-known Russian journalist says (I can't verify these words, but I have no reason not to trust him), Trump has very good personal relationships with Saakashvili. Therefore, there will not be a rapid progress, but the fact that we now have an opportunity to negotiate, to do something, it's probably good. The question is, how this will be played out. If now, after the victory of Trump, we choose not to discredit the new president and not to continue to advance in Eastern Aleppo, it will be the right thing. We need that Aleppo somehow will be removed from the agenda by January 20.
Trump has succeeded in bringing his voters to the polling stations. The turnout among the supporters of Trump turned out to be higher than among the supporters of Hillary. Photo: sputniknews.com
How will the policy of the U.S. government headed by Trump change in relation to Syria and Ukraine?
We should not expect sharp changes, but in three months, at least until January 20, when it is the inauguration of the new president. Until January 20, Trump is absolutely irrelevant to the affairs. Until that time, Obama will steer, then, most likely Trump. By 20 January, the situation in Syria, I hope, will change seriously, if we play our cards right. And I hope that something will change on Ukraine. These idiots in Kiev made too serious stakes on Clinton. They cursed Trump as they wanted. And how they are going to work with him now is a big question. How Poroshenko will shake the hand to Donald Trump, with what sour face he will do it — it will be very interesting to see it. And it's all because you should know when to speak and when to be silent, and you should know who should speak and whose role is simply to accept the changes that occur.
The success of security and military forces and white middle class
How has Trump managed to win over the voices of the 'doubters' of the United States? Why has Pennsylvania become one of the key states?
There have been several key states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and probably Michigan (I have not seen the results in this state). Sociology showed that Trump was supposed to take all and he did it. Moreover, he almost won in Virginia — the home state of Vice-President in the team of Hillary Clinton. If he won in Virginia, it would be a great embarrassment for Hillary. If you look at the balance of votes in the state of Pennsylvania, in Philadelphia the residents voted for Hillary. Relatively speaking, the whole village everywhere voted for Trump. And Trump has mobilized his electorate, he has brought them to the polling stations. Perhaps, the FBI played some role here. But it will possible to tell more exactly and seriously on the basis of new sociological calculations.
Who is a voter for Trump?
The voters for Trump — people with an average education, the middle class, adult white men protesting against the destruction of America, in which they grew up — where all depends on you, where you have the future, if you're a middle class and you work hard. They are against the destruction of the American dream in the classic sense of the word.
The voters for Trump — people with an average education, the middle class, adult white men protesting against the destruction of America, in which they grew up. Photo: newsru.co.il
What forces are allies of Trump — the military-industrial complex, Silicon Valley, the banking sector?
On the side of Trump there are security and military forces, FBI, border service, ordinary white people.
Will the U.S. policy headed by Donald Trump toughen against Hispanics, Muslims, Afro-Americans and different groups of immigrants?
Trump promised toughening against illegal immigrants. Many Americans supported him in this. But Trump will not do any sharp statements and actions. He does not need to deepen the contradictions inside his own Republican party, to deepen the split within the Congress, because in this case he can face impeachment. His task is to reconcile with everyone quietly, and then to achieve his domestic and foreign programs.
Who's Trump? If he really is a patriot, opponent of multiculturalism, supporter of traditional values? Or it's all part of his image?
Donald Trump is a showman, businessman, who made himself, a billionaire, a man who is not afraid to talk about things as they really are, not afraid to highlight a problem and to solve it. That's a kind of president who now needed in the United States.
Why in the Russian right-wing circles they believe that Trump is a continuation of the decay of Russia in bilateral relations, and Clinton is an uncompromising confrontation, competition, and it is better?
I have not heard such point of view even among some of the most pseudo-liberals. There is no rot in the USA. Clinton is the rot of the USA. She refuses to acknowledge the real problems facing the United States. Clinton is trying to pretend there is no problem with illegal immigration, with Afro-Americans being on the dole, problems with terrorism, there is no concept of Islamic terrorism. An American president, of course, can continue to put his head in the sand, ignoring problems that are around him, but this is very wrong.