Shift to federal side: budget 2025 will be distributed according to new tax scheme

Have become richer?

The main financial document of the republic was adopted in the first reading by deputies of the updated composition of the State Council of Tatarstan on 9 October. In the initial parameters, the republican budget looks modest compared to its “predecessor”, but it still remains impressively rich. According to the document, revenues will amount to 425 billion rubles, expenses — 439 billion rubles, deficit — 13.5 billion rubles. For comparison, the draft budget of a similar oil region, Tyumen region, is one and a half times “thinner”, varies within 300 billion rubles and has a much larger deficit (43 billion rubles).

The basic version of the draft budget of Tatarstan for 2025 deviated from the forecast of the ministry of finance of the Republic of Tatarstan, prepared by it when approving last year's budget-2023. As can be seen from the documents, the indicators of budget revenues and expenditures turned out to be about 7-10% higher than forecast. In fact, this is comparable to the level of current inflation, which has “eaten up” the increase.

Therefore, the draft budget for 2025 looks as if it was indexed in an inflationary spiral. There is no particularly noticeable growth in either income or expenses. Although the deputy prime minister of the Republic of Tatarstan, Midkhat Shagiakhmetov, when presenting the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan, announced an increase in the pace of economic development to 102.9% in 2025 and for the next two years in a radius of 102.6-102.7%. Theoretically, this should mirror the basic indicators of the budget 2025, but as if “it didn't take off.”

Since the beginning of the year, production has increased by 101.7%

Since the beginning of the year, the industry has shown an increase of 101.7%, that is, it is stagnating, Midkhat Shagiakhmetov said. The reason is OPEC's restriction on oil production, which is offset by growth in manufacturing industries. Optimistic forecasts on the dynamics of the economy are based on the fact that the artificial containment of oil production will be overlapped by industry, where the production index rose to 103.1%.

Based on this, the head of the ministry of economy confirmed the republic's course to achieve GRP growth to 5 trillion rubles this year. And its gradual increase to 5.8 trillion rubles by the end of 2027. Here, the head of the ministry of economy is betting on attracting private capital, but for some reason he bypassed the Central Bank's policy of raising the key rate.

So the cheerful parting words about attracting investments looked more like a “figure of speech” than like business maneuvers. However, Marat Galeev, an old-timer of the parliament, asked if the mechanism for attracting investments secured by intellectual property was working. The deputy prime minister assured that such deals are underway, but did not name anything specific. Deputy Ryagat Khusainov asked what the effectiveness of business working meetings at the “Supplier Day” with large holdings was, and also received a vague answer.

“The result is in demand," replied Shagiakhmetov.

An uncertain answer was also given to the question of Deputy Fadbir Safin about small technological entrepreneurship.

Payroll budget will increase by 74 billion rubles in 2025

The revival in the parliament hall came after the speech of the head of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tatarstan, who, in fact, became the main speaker of the meeting. Finance Minister Radik Gaizatullin said that next year the main source of income will be personal income tax and income tax. Fees will increase by 35% to 186 billion rubles. In other words, the salary fund in the republic will be increased by 74 billion rubles. The share of personal income tax in the republican budget will grow to 38%, Gaizatullin said.

At the same time, income tax receipts will increase by 13.5% to 128 billion rubles. None of the deputies asked about the reason for such dynamics, and it is clear that the “reformatting” occurred as a result of the federal tax reform. Revenues from excise taxes will increase to 11 billion rubles, land tax — to 8.9 billion rubles, transport tax — to 7.7 billion rubles. In the spending policy, education (about 160 billion) took the first place, followed by healthcare (122 billion) and the social sphere, but here about 64 billion rubles were allocated for indexing payments.

Where did the losses of 3 billion rubles come from under simplified taxation

After seeing the picture with the redistribution of taxes, deputy Ryagat Khusainov asked what was the reason for the loss of the treasury of 3 billion rubles under the simplified taxation system? The head of the ministry of finance laid out the reason literally on his fingers. The trigger is a change in federal legislation on the tax system, as a result of which large businesses can switch to “simplified taxation” and optimise the amount of taxes.

“As you know, federal legislation has changed since next year. The threshold for business on the simplified taxation has been changed from 260 to 450 million rubles, and the residual value of fixed assets has been increased. This makes it possible for legal entities to switch from the basic tax system to the simplified one. We are losing here," said Radik Gayzatullin

Why? First, large businesses are exempt from paying property tax. Secondly, he will pay tax under the simplified taxation at a rate of 15% (income minus expenses) instead of 17% on the traditional income tax.

“According to our calculations, the loss of about 3 billion is possible here," said the finance minister.

Continuing the topic, Deputy Gennady Glushkov asked how the proportion between Russia and Tatarstan in the distribution of taxes would change.

“All the changes that have been made at the federal level significantly increase the revenue base of the federal budget. You've noticed for yourself that his income has grown quite a lot. This is due to the adopted changes," the finance minister said. “I think next year the proportion will be more on the side of the federal budget," he said, finding it difficult to give an exact proportion.

Apparently, for this reason, the “appetite” for financial doping has jumped. According to the representative of the Accounting Chamber, the Tatarstan budget is adjusted without taking into account inter-budgetary federal transfers. The reason is that the draft federal budget has not yet been submitted to the State Duma, so they are not provided for in the original version of the bill. Meanwhile, subsidies in the amount of 1.2 trillion rubles were allocated to the regions, but only 12% of this amount were distributed, the representative of the Joint Venture of the Republic of Tatarstan noted in his speech.

Assessing the economic pace of development, Leonid Yakunin, head of the Tatarstan State Council Committee on Budget, Taxes and Finance, noted that “the economy continues to surprise with its stability and growth dynamics, despite unprecedented sanctions pressure and a difficult economic situation.”

“However, the result is different — the economy has not only adapted to the new conditions, but also demonstrates growth that exceeds the expectations of experts," he concluded.