Felix Gogol: ‘No low temperatures near’
The Tatarstan Weather Centre spoke about the start of the heating season
The heating season is clearly not coming anytime soon, head of the Tatarstan Weather Centre Felix Gogol told Realnoe Vremya. It begins when the temperature stays below eight degrees for five days, and “there will be no such weather in the near future.” The weather this September is above the average, and the summer, contrary to the opinion of ordinary people, in turn, is not considered abnormal. Read more in a report of Realnoe Vremya.
“There won't be any serious cold weather yet”
The heating season is clearly not expected for Tatarstan residents anytime soon because the temperature has not yet reached the required level of 8 degrees and below. However, long-term forecasts cannot be given, head of the republic's Weather Centre Felix Gogol told Realnoe Vremya.
“We do not make such forecasts because they are long-term. We give official forecasts only for three days because many factors are involved. In the near future, such temperatures will not even be close,” he assured Realnoe Vremya.
For some time, high temperatures will continue to appear in Tatarstan, while nights are already becoming cool:
“Anticyclonic activity will prevail until the end of the week. Accordingly, the temperature will remain quite high. It is cool at night, of course. But there is no serious cold yet, it’s above the average. Sooner or later, this heat wave, which is currently observed, will naturally be replaced by a cold wave. This will happen, just not in the coming days.”
“We can talk about an anomaly”
Temperature records, despite values exceeding the norm, are not recorded this September. However, this does not mean that there is no anomaly.
“Temperature records have not been broken these days. There were days in certain years when the temperature was slightly higher. But of course, we can talk about anomalies,” Gogol explained. “For one and a half decades of September, the temperature was significantly higher than the average every day. There were days when the norm was exceeded by even 10 degrees. This is a very big anomaly, but these are not records.”
The average daily norm for September is 11-12 degrees. On average, the temperature is exceeded by 5-8 degrees, and in recent days it has reached 20-23 degrees.
“This is happening because anticyclonic activity prevails, an extensive anticyclone that covers a significant part of the European territory of Russia. An anticyclone is an area of high pressure in which there is practically no cloudiness, with the exception of the periphery, due to which heating occurs,” the speaker said. “In addition, the flows in our territory were of a southern trajectory, so it was quite warm. The breeze is weak, precipitation in the anticyclone is very small or does not occur at all.”
However, such anomalies do not pose a threat, on the contrary, such conditions have become favourable for ordinary people and especially farmers:
“The consequences are most favourable for people in everyday life. Extending summer for another two weeks. This is especially good for agriculture — now the harvest is underway. Also, now there is practically no precipitation, and there was enough of it before. At the end of August, in some areas, over-moistening of the soil was even announced. I do not see anything negative in the current weather,” Gogol assured us.
“Some days close to the criteria for a dangerous phenomenon”
The temperature in the summer, contrary to the opinion of ordinary people, turned out to be only 3 degrees above normal, said the head of the Weather Centre.
“The average in June is 18 degrees, it was 3 degrees warmer, in August — 1 degree with the norm of 21, in August there was a slight decrease — 17.4 degrees with the norm of 17.7,” Gogol listed.
However, there were also days with critically high temperatures. For example, in the first ten days of July, the thermometer reached 37 degrees:
“This is a very high temperature. This is close to the criteria for a dangerous phenomenon in our region. There were periods — heat waves, cold waves. In general, the summer was slightly above the average.”
The expert also touched on the topic of precipitation — this summer it was distributed extremely unevenly across the republic. Thus, in June, an excess of 117% of the average was recorded, in August — 128%, and in July, the amount of precipitation was even lower than the norm — the figure was 95%.
“The most fell in the Menzelinsk (300%) and Muslyumovo (250%) districts. The least in Drozhzhanovo 30% of the norm. In July, an indicator of 175% was recorded in Kazan. Precipitation behaves much more variable than temperatures, especially in summer,” Gogol concluded.