Arcady Dubnov: 'The regime in Uzbekistan won't undergo significant changes after Islam Karimov's death’

'13 years as Prime Minister indicate the level of trust that he enjoyed of 'father'

Arkady, could you tell us about Mirziyaev? What political figure is he?

You hardly find people who know him personally. Apparently, he is a closed person — a typical political Uzbek. As they say about him, this man is quite hard, does not allow many people to himself, he appears very rarely in public, his style of communication reproduces the style of Islam Karimov. He is known for his temper, some people say that he could punch in anger.

Well, as a politician… What politician in Uzbekistan can be in these years? There is only one politician, all the others are his subordinates. A politician is someone who paves his way to power, and Mirziyaev made his way to power, quite properly being a good administrator, governor. He was loyal to Karimov, judging from what is known.

Were there other candidates?

He has been Prime Minister for 13 years, he was one of the two or three most hyped persons in the circle of Karimov. He occupied the second formally (de facto, the second most important) post in the hierarchy — the post of Prime Minister.

'The main danger for his power — the rivals from other clans. If he immediately put them in their place, he will come in power and, maybe, for quite long.' Photo: kremlin.ru

Of course, in Uzbekistan they very rarely change this kind of officials – it is not Kazakhstan. However, 13 years for Uzbekistan is also very much that indicate the level of trust that he enjoyed of 'father' (as they called Karimov in Uzbekistan).

Actually, the choice was very small. There also was the Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov, but the rest… I am familiar with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, but that's another story — they are people who did not initially claim to political power and do not have such character by nature. But Mirziyaev — a person, who is able to toe the line everything that obeyed him.

Does that mean that he has every chance to remain at the helm?

If he defeats inter-clannishness, it is possible. There is no political opposition in the country, no street crowd, no danger of a colour revolution (it is even uninteresting to talk about). There is a possibility of the emergence of hotbeds of Islamic radicalism. The main danger for his power — the rivals from other clans. If he immediately puts them in their place, he will come in power and, maybe, for long enough. I do not suppose, of course, that for the next 25 years, because he is already 59 years old, he is unlikely to rule until 85.

Is a 'light regime' possible in Uzbekistan? An analogue of the Khrushchev Thaw?

In the first days I believed that a 'light regime' was possible. Now I am more skeptic of that. Judging by the fact that they have ignored the Constitution and did not give the transit to go under the 96th article, having appointed the speaker of the Senate as the acting head of state for three months. I can understand why it has been done: they need to show the public who's main in the house so there would be no attempt of real competition in the elections with candidates. In such country with such regime everything should under control to show that the elite is consolidated, that they have agreed, reached a consensus. This is quite a hard style. Now I have less reason to expect a thaw. Nevertheless, it is quite possible: well, maybe some amnesty will be declared, some drug dealer will be released. Maybe some kind of legislative novella appears to facilitate conditions for small or even medium business. But, in general, the regime will not undergo any changes.

So, should we expect that the regime established in the country by Karimov will crack?

No, you shouldn't, such earthquake will not happen.

'The relations with Russia will be built according to the contract on strategic partnership. In this sense, little will change. This is a very powerful, hard-to-change ship, which will not turn around quickly.' Photo: gov.kg

International cooperation and economic realities

If to remember Karimov's funerals, many countries sent their not the highest-rank officials, except for some neighbours. Does this mean that none of these countries is a strategic partner for Uzbekistan?

Mirzyaev spoke yesterday and reminded once again that relations with Russia will be built according to the contract on strategic partnership. In this sense, little will change. This is a very powerful, hard-to-change ship, which will not turn around quickly.

They will not be malicious with the West, they will try to be loyal. Any special closeness should not be expected, because by definition they are afraid of the Americans and do not trust them since 2005. But they needed the Americans to align slightly the balance in relations with Russia. Karimov traditionally feared the 'North King' since the Soviet times. When he withdrew from the CSTO in 1999, he did this in particular for two reasons. First of all, when we began to transform the 201st division in Tajikistan into a military base, he said, 'Why do I need Russian fist near me?' And second, in those years there was the scandal when Moscow gave weapons to Armenia at a billion dollars, it was opposed by Azerbaijan, and Karimov then, based on this Islamic brotherhood, sided with Azerbaijan and accused Moscow of the fact that it took the side of one of its allies.

What is Uzbekistan like in economic terms?

It is quite a self-sufficient country. In Uzbekistan they have everything, like they say about the periodic table. There are gold, uranium, gas, oil, ores. Also they have cotton. Of course, it is not a natural resource but the resource that brings money into the treasury. They have only a little water.

'It is quite a self-sufficient country. In Uzbekistan they have everything, like they say about the periodic table. There are gold, uranium, gas, oil, ores. Also, they have cotton.' Photo: gov.kg

It is a country with an isolationist economy. They tend to avoid significant debts to international financial organizations, so the investments are long-term, serious, which suggest a kind of innovative economy… Such economy in Uzbekistan virtually does not exist, as well as modern enterprises. Of course, there are modern petrochemical plants that supply the secondary-tertiary products of the chemical cycle — different polypropylenes. But it is the industry which does not matter one way or the other.

The service sector is mostly small and medium businesses. It largely tries to provide the needs in imports. The local industry does not provide the household purpose products.

This is a very Soviet economy with an attempt to adapt it to the resources that are now completely the property of Uzbekistan. Well, the currency that is virtually unconvertible openly. The black market almost twice more the official exchange rate.