Natalia Malykh: ‘Dividend payers look generally stronger than those who have frozen the dividend stream’

Sber: in 2023, we can expect a significant recovery in profits and a return to dividend payments

According to the Central Bank's instructions, Sber is not paying dividends this year. At the same time, the recently presented results for October and 10 months of this year indicate that Sber has confidently survived the peak of the crisis and has actually returned to normal operation: the bank has reached a profitable level, and the main indicators (lending volumes, net interest and commission income, reservation volumes, the share of delinquency) have reached pre-crisis level values. If the October trend continues, by the end of the entire 2022 the bank's profit may amount to 200-300 billion rubles, which will be very good for such a difficult year. If there are no new economic or other shocks, in 2023 we can expect a significant recovery in profits and a return to dividend payments, which, by the way, was hinted at by German Gref.

It is still difficult to predict specific figures for dividends. Sber may decide to distribute a portion of the profits of an extremely successful 2021 to shareholders, the payment of interim dividends is not excluded. At the same time, we expect that the country's leading bank will pleasantly surprise next year in terms of dividends, and we believe that its shares are worthy of inclusion in the long-term dividend portfolio. According to our estimates, if the bank pays dividends based only on the profit by the end of 2022, the amount of the dividend will be 5,5 rubles per share of each type. This corresponds to a yield of 4% on ordinary shares and 4,2% in prefs. These figures, in our opinion, can be considered the lower limits of the expected profitability of the securities of Sber.

PhosAgro: dividend yield for 2023 will be about 13%

PhosAgro's strong positions in key markets make the risks of sanctions against the company minimal in the face of a shortage of fertilisers and food in the world, and high product prices ensure strong financial results. For 9 months of 2022, PhosAgro increased fertiliser production by 6,7% and sales by 6,8%. Revenue increased by 57%, profit — by 75%. After the withdrawal of the companies controlling shareholders from the foreign jurisdiction, PhosAgro resumed the payment of dividends. Dividends for the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first half of 2022 (together) they amounted to 780 rubles per share, the yield was 11,3%. Dividends for the third quarter of 2022 will amount to 318 rubles per share, the current yield is 4,9%. The register will be closed on December 18, the last day for buying on the stock exchange is December 14.

According to our conservative estimate, the dividends for the fourth quarter may amount to about 200 rubles per share, and the total amount of dividends received by shareholders in 2023 is about 850 rubles per share. The dividend yield for 2023 will be about 13%.

Samolet: they may implement in December the previously planned third tranche of payments in the amount of another 5 billion rubles

The developer demonstrates high growth rates of financial and operational indicators during the current year, despite the difficult situation in the real estate market, which allows the developer, the only one in the industry, to continue paying dividends. According to the results of the first quarter of 2022, the board of directors allocated 2.5 billion rubles, or 41 rubles per share, for dividend payments with a yield of 1,5%. Then, after strong financial performance in the first half of 2022, a decision was approved to allocate another 2,5 billion rubles, or 41 rubles per share, for dividends with a yield of 1,8%.

The operating report for the first nine months of 2022 shows that sales volumes continued to grow (+70% YoY, up to 126,8 billion rubles, +50% YoY, up to 760,7 thousand square metres), so we expect that Samolet will implement in December the previously planned third tranche of payments in the amount of another 5 billion rubles, or 82 rubles per share, with a yield of 3,3%. Thus, the total dividend yield for 2022 will be 6,6%.

Mother and Сhild (Mat I Ditya): there is no official dividend policy, but the company can make it a tradition to pay interest twice a year

The board of directors of the medical holding approved the payment of interim dividends for the first half of 2022 in the amount of 8,55 rubles per ordinary share or GDR. Meanwhile, the company quite successfully reported on the results of the third quarter — revenue increased by 3,3% YoY, to 6,44 billion rubles, including revenue of Moscow hospitals decreased by 2,8% YoY, to 3,38 billion rubles, and revenue of regional hospitals increased by 16,1% YoY, to 1,66 billion rubles. The revenue of outpatient clinics in Moscow and Moscow Oblast increased by 6%, to 642 million rubles, and regional outpatient clinics increased by 5,7%, to 764 million rubles. The average check in Moscow showed an increase of 14,3%, in the regions — by 3,8%. The number of bed days increased by 12,4%.

In general, we constructively evaluate the operational results of the holding Mother and Child, it manages to show revenue growth in its main areas of activity even in a difficult demographic and economic situation. The company does not have an official dividend policy, but we believe that it will make it a tradition to pay dividends twice a year in the foreseeable years. In our opinion, the amount of dividends for the second half of 2022 may amount to about 20 rubles per paper with a yield of 4,3%.

RusHydro: investors should not wait for payments at divident policy level now

According to the results of the first half of the year, the company showed a drop in net profit by 25,5% (YoY), and here the main reason was a jump in fuel costs by 39,4% YoY, from 39 billion rubles to 54 billion rubles. Even taking into account the preservation of such dynamics at the end of the year, the dividend base, based on the company's policy (about 30 billion rubles), will still remain with a margin above the amount allocated for payments by the end of 2021 (23,3 billion rubles).

The other question is that investors should not wait for payments at divident policy level now. According to Roman Berdnikov, a member of the management board, in the current realities, internal needs are a priority for the company, and therefore, in our opinion, dividends by the end of 2022 will remain at the level of 2021 (0,05 rubles per share). The forecast yield of 2022, therefore, is 7%.

Inter RAO: the company's annual profit is expected to decrease by 25%

The company has stopped publishing results under IFRS, and therefore it is not possible to assess the real dynamics of financial indicators, in particular net profit, 25% of which is allocated to dividends. It is likely that, in addition to the sector's characteristic growth in the share of fuel costs in the cost price, the company was hit by a halt in the export of electricity to EU countries: in previous years, due to these supplies, IRAO received from 5 to 6% of revenue. In the baseline scenario, we expect the company's annual profit to decrease by 25% YoY in 2022, which corresponds to a payment of 0,18 rubles per share and a yield of about 5,5%.

Gazprom Energoholding: holding focuses on net profit in the region of 45-50 billion rubles

Mosenergo, OGK-2 and TGK-1, the subsidiaries of Gazprom Energoholding, have stopped publishing reports since the second quarter, and it is problematic to estimate the amount of dividends for these cases now. Nevertheless, we believe that Mosenergo and OGK-2 have no grounds for non-payment, since Gazprom Energoholding will be the main beneficiary of such decision. Denis Fedorov, the head of Gazprom Energoholding, said that the holding is focused on net profit in the region of 45-50 billion rubles (52 billion rubles in 2021) while maintaining operating indicators at the level of 2021, but the dynamics of operating results for nine months indicates a low probability of fulfilling such a forecast. With a reference to the payment rate of 50% of net profit, we expect that the Mosenergo dividend will amount to 0,201 rubles (0,223 rubles in 2021) per share, and OGK-2 — 0,082 rubles (0,097 rubles in 2021), which corresponds to good yields — 11,4% and 15,0%, respectively.

The situation with TGC-1 is similar to the case of Unipro — the experience of dividends for 2021 suggests that Fortum is highly likely to block dividends for 2022 if the Finnish company's share (29,45%) in the share capital is not realised.

Rosseti Holding companies: the probability of paying dividends still exists

For the holding companies, uncertainty remains regarding dividends for 9 months, since many IFRS statements have not yet been published. The probability of payment by the most effective subsidiaries (MOESK, Rosseti Center and Volga Region, Rosseti Center and IDGC of the Urals) still exists. If the payment of dividends for 9 months still does not take place, we expect the highest returns by the end of 2022 from these companies. Probably, Rosseti Ural will somewhat lose its position, whose net profit according to Russian Accounting Standards for 9 months fell by 49% (YoY), in connection with which we expect a dividend of 0,014 rubles per share, which corresponds to a yield of 8,6% (12,5% in 2021). The forecasted profitability for the rest of these companies exceeds 10%: Rosseti Center — 0,030 rubles (11,3%), MOESK — 0,095 rubles (10,1%), Rosseti Center and Volga Region — 0,025 rubles (13,3%). Besides, Lenenergo's prefixes may be traditionally profitable, for which we expect 19,1 rubles per share (14,2%). The high probability of dividends from subsidiaries is mainly due to the need of the parent company for liquidity against the background of large investment projects being implemented, as well as ongoing consolidation.