‘Rule, Britannia!’: why the British will stay in the EU

What is Brexit?

Brexit — the British referendum (it is a blending of two words — 'Britain' and 'exit'), which is being held on 23 June, to decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union. Last year, having won the elections and formed the government, the Conservative Party promised to hold a referendum on EU membership. It is a serious question that concerns everyone — and that means that there should be a referendum. I must say that the referendum for the UK — an extraordinary event.

In the UK for the entire modern history there have been held two referendums. The first one — on the entry in the European community (proto-EU) in 1975. The second one — in 2011 — was technical: on the changes to the election procedure to the British Parliament. The referendum is extraordinary for the EU too. None of the countries-EU members never left it. But Greenland, being an overseas territory of Denmark, after receiving more autonomy in 1982, 52% voted for the exit. So, the exit took place, but not of the country.

Indeed, the stakes are very high —in Europe and the world everyone is very concerned about this.

Relax, a storm will not take place!

But Brexit, with which we were so frightened lately, it seems, will not take place. It is indicated not only by the British currency rates, and they have begun to grow recently.

The rate of the British pound sterling to the dollar on 20.06.2016:

As you can see, after the falling last week the British pound has significantly strengthened (+3.5%), which means that the investors are confident that Brexit will not take place.

Moreover, the data from the polls indicate a falling probability of Brexit.

The data on 16.06.2016 — the probability of Brexit was 42%:

The data on 18.06.2016 — the probability of Brexit was 37%:

As you can see, the probability is falling. The authorities in the UK and most of all the head of the British Government David Cameron are agitating for the staying in the EU. The population is intimidated by extremely gloomy forecasts, they say that in the case of separation it is expected the reduction of UK GDP by 2020 in the range of 3 to 9.5%; the fall in the main stock index FTSE by 15%; the increase in the cost of borrowings; the reduction of exports by 10-15%; the increase in unemployment by 1.5–2 percentage points; significant disturbances on the market of financial services; the depreciation of the London real estate and many other…

The President of the Council of Europe Donald Tusk publicly declared: 'As a historian, I fear that the leave of Britain may be the beginning of the end not only for the EU but for the whole Western political civilization.'

The US President Barack Obama in his article published on 22 April in the British The Daily Telegraph urged the British to stay in the EU. Earlier, the US leader repeatedly advocated for the British membership in the EU.

The arguments are serious enough and have a sobering effect on the British. The political weight of the leaders of public opinion is not equal.

Who heads the camp of opposition to Brexit? The answer: the head of the British Government David Cameron, who spent a lot of time and effort to bargain for Britain the special terms of EU membership, and now he claims that in the EU it will be better for Britain, richer and stronger.

Boris Johnson actively and vociferously states that outside the EU Britain will only get better: more rights, you can trade with the whole world, not just with Europe. Photo: Global Look Press

Who heads the camp of supporters of Brexit? The answer: the former mayor of London Boris Johnson, who actively and vociferously states that outside the EU Britain will only get better: more rights, you can trade with the whole world, not just with Europe.

The powers of the leaders are not equal. It even comes to the hints about the preparation of a major fraud in favour of the opponents of Brexit.

In fact, Brexit has already taken place

The most interesting thing is that on 19 February of this year, the head of the British Government David Cameron after several months of negotiation signed an agreement with the European Union on the special status of the UK.

The agreement includes three points:

1. Britain introduces the limited access to the system of social welfare for the migrant workers from the EU. Within 4 years from the date of arrival, new migrants will not receive any social benefits. This means that those who wish to move to Albion for the job, they need to save up some money or to secure a guarantee from an employer for immediate hiring with a contract for a period of not less than four years.
2. Britain, as we know, is not included in the Euro zone and uses its own pounds. However, according to Cameron, his country was unwittingly engaged in the supporting of the euro. Now the British financial system has gained independence from the European Central Bank.
3. Cameron bargained for Britain the right not to participate in the processes of European integration if it is contrary to the interests of Britain.

In fact, the head of the British Government achieved exactly what the supporters of British exit from the European Union are fighting for. All of these points serve them as arguments in the campaign. The question is, will the country's exit from the EU be just a formality if from February its obligations to the united Europe are minimized?

In fact, the head of the British Government achieved exactly what the supporters of British exit from the European Union are fighting for. Photo: forbes.com

The arguments of discontented people and the benefits of the sympathizers

So, why do some Brits want to run away from the EU? In fact, the probability of such outcome is 37% — it is a lot for the people's opinions. Clearly, it is necessary to overcome their former Imperial complex 'Rule, Britannia!', because the times have changed. But the memory of past greatness still lives in the British minds and, therefore, the slogans of sovereignty find in their hearts the most enthusiastic response. The British, the supporters of Brexit, also give other arguments:

• We will sign with the EU the same contracts as Norway and Switzerland did. The EU is interested in us as we are, we are the fifth-the sixth economy in the world. Also, we will sign agreements with China, India, United States, — on our own, without the dictates of European bureaucracy.
• We pay to the EU 13 billion pounds a year. We give to the European bureaucrats 350 million pounds every week. Let's give the money to our health care!
• Labour immigrants from the EU are a burden on our healthcare and social services, this will undermine them in the end. Let's introduce a point system for all immigrants, as in Australia!
• All small and medium businesses are for us! They are stifled by the European bureaucrats regulating the curvature of cucumbers. The British will be free from these suffocating euro norms. And we will cancel the VAT, and British business will quickly compensate the possible losses.
• We are the great nation and a bastion of democracy but we are governed by the officials sitting in Brussels, for whom we did not vote and whom we can not depose. And, they, on the continent, are not going to abandon the idea of the European superstate, in which Great Britain will just dissolve, it will become one of the provinces.

But having signed a very beneficial for the UK agreement with the European Union on the special status of the UK, the head of the British Government David Cameron has already, as shown above, pulled the rug under many questions of the supporters of the exit. Besides, even in the case of failure of Brexit the British Government will continue to work on 'bug fix' and, therefore, the supporters of Brexit will gain something for themselves. They will not ignore a large percentage though losers in the UK— it is not their tradition.

We, in Russia, will benefit from Brexit as a very strong split of the European Union. Because it means the weakening of Europe that is opposing Russia, in particular, by sanctions and other tools of the global political struggle. Any split in the ranks of the rivals on the world stage — a good thing, after all, thin players always try to play on contradictions. However, as you can see, Brexit will not take place and, therefore, these hopes are premature.