Climate anomalies deprive Kazan of 15 days of winter and 25 days of summer
Meteorologists explain why January high water comes instead of Epiphany frosts and when real cold weather to come up
No snow during the New Year holidays in Central Russia, the cancellation of Epiphany bathing due to insufficient solid ice, rains in January, the inability to skate and ski. All these phenomena, which recently seemed unthinkable, have become the reality of this winter in Central Russia. KFU scientists told reporters about the nature of disasters and how they affect people's lives. Read the details in the material of Realnoe Vremya.
Warmer winter, colder summer
Due to climate anomalies, the residents of Kazan in 2019 did not receive 25 summer days less when meteorologists recorded the average daily temperature below +15 degrees. This was announced at a press conference by Associate Professor of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology at the Kazan Federal University (KFU) Timur Aukhadeev.
This winter, according to the expert, on the contrary, is abnormally warm: out of 52 days of the calendar winter, only 37 have been truly winter (with the average daily temperature below zero). As Timur Aukhadeev noted, this January in Kazan the average daily temperature is 8-12 degrees higher than the climate norm. There is a frequent transition of air temperature through zero, which is negatively affecting the quality and service life of the roadway: getting into the asphalt through microcracks, the melted water then freezes destroying the pavement.
Timur Aukhadeev also spoke about the trend of increasing the height of the snow cover, which has been observed in recent years. After today's snowfall, this value at the KFU weather station reached 14 centimeters, but most of the previously fallen snow has melted.
“We calculated that if the snow did not melt due to abnormally warm weather, the height of the snow cover would now be 70-80 centimetres. It is high snowdrifts," Aukhadeev noted. “Based on experience, I believe that in this case, there would also be dissatisfied with the weather.”
February will be more wintery
In the near future, the winter may become more similar to itself, but a very strong cold snap is not expected in January or, according to preliminary estimates, in February.
According to the head of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology at the KFU, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor Yury Perevedentsev, some fall in temperature is expected this week. Daytime temperatures will drop to -5 degrees, and night temperatures will drop to -9 degrees. Precipitation is also possible. However, the cold snap will not be prolonged.
“The cold has nowhere to go from to us. The weather in our latitudes is now formed by the west-east transition. Cyclones coming from Scandinavia carry air that is warmer than what used to come from the Kara Sea, from Siberia. But there is no Siberian cyclone, which usually manifests itself at this time of year," Perevedentsev explained.
When asked about the forecast for February, Yury Perevedentsev suggested that the weather in the last month of the calendar winter will be colder than January, but severe frosts are not expected.
Warming will not stop even if we eliminate emissions
Yury Perevedentsev also said that the gradual increase in average temperature has been observed since the beginning of the industrial era, around since 1900, when the anthropogenic impact on nature became most noticeable. At the same time, the sharpest growth has been recorded in the last decade, and the two warmest years in the history of weather observations fell on the last five-year period: 2016 and 2019. Professor Perevedentsev attributes this to a high concentration of greenhouse gases.
“The area of sea ice is decreasing, especially in the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic used to be icy and snowy, the albedo (reflectivity) is high, and radiation came and was reflected. Now the area of the water surface is increasing, the Arctic Ocean is becoming more accessible, but the water absorbs radiation very well, so it is heating up," the expert explained. “This is due to the fact that in the Arctic and the Northern countries, including Russia, warming is faster than in the world.
And even if we assume that greenhouse gas emissions stop, their high concentration will continue to have an impact on global climate change for many years to come. Therefore," Perevedentsev says, “the main question is not how to stop them, but how to adapt to these changes.”
“The world economy is suffering significant losses due to weather disasters. Insurance payments alone amounted to $250 billion in 2017 and $170 billion in 2018," Perevedentsev said.